大越期货尿素早报-20251029

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The short - term price of urea is expected to recover, and it is predicted that the trend of UR today will be oscillating and moderately strong. Although the domestic urea market remains in a state of oversupply, factors such as the strong international price, increased export volume, and short - term decline in daily production are driving the short - term market improvement [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - Fundamentals: Current daily production and operating rate are starting to decline from high levels, and the comprehensive inventory has slightly decreased. Agricultural demand has rebounded due to weather influence, while industrial demand is significantly weak. The price difference between domestic and foreign markets for exports is large but has decreased, and the export volume has increased. The domestic urea market is still oversupplied, but the market is expected to recover in the short term. The spot price of the delivery product is 1590 (+0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - Basis: The basis of the UR2601 contract is - 45, and the premium/discount ratio is - 2.8%, which is bearish [4]. - Inventory: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.84 million tons (- 201,000 tons), which is bearish [4]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is downward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is neutral [4]. - Main Position: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [4]. - Expectation: The futures price of the urea main contract has rebounded. Industrial demand is weak, while agricultural demand has recovered. The international urea price is strong, and the export volume has increased. Although the domestic oversupply situation is still obvious, the short - term price is expected to recover, and the UR is predicted to trend oscillating and moderately strong today [4]. Factors Affecting the Market - Bullish Factors: Strong international prices, increased exports, and short - term decline in daily production [5]. - Bearish Factors: Domestic oversupply [5]. - Main Logic: International prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5]. Spot, Futures, and Inventory Data - Spot: The spot price of the delivery product is 1590, with no change; the Shandong spot price is 1610, with no change; the Henan spot price is 1590, with no change; the FOB China price is 2662 [6]. - Futures: The price of the UR01 contract is 1635, down 5; the price of the UR05 contract is 1708, down 5; the price of the UR09 contract is 1736, down 9. The basis of the UR01 contract is - 45, up 5 [6]. - Inventory: The warehouse receipt is 2970, down 2318; the UR comprehensive inventory is 1.84 million tons; the UR manufacturer inventory is 1.63 million tons; the UR port inventory is 210,000 tons [6]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - In 2018, the output was 19.5681 billion, the net import volume was 4.4838 billion, the apparent consumption was 24.0519 billion, and the ending inventory was 236.6 million [9]. - In 2019, the output was 22.4 billion, the net import volume was 4.8794 billion, the apparent consumption was 27.2794 billion, and the ending inventory was 378.6 million. The production capacity growth rate was 8.9%, and the consumption growth rate was 12.8% [9]. - In 2020, the output was 25.8098 billion, the net import volume was 6.1912 billion, the apparent consumption was 32.001 billion, and the ending inventory was 378.3 million. The production capacity growth rate was 15.5%, and the consumption growth rate was 17.9% [9]. - In 2021, the output was 29.2799 billion, the net import volume was 3.5241 billion, the apparent consumption was 32.804 billion, and the ending inventory was 357.2 million. The production capacity growth rate was 11.4%, and the consumption growth rate was 2.6% [9]. - In 2022, the output was 29.6546 billion, the net import volume was 3.3537 billion, the apparent consumption was 33.0083 billion, and the ending inventory was 446.2 million. The production capacity growth rate was 8.4%, and the consumption growth rate was 0.3% [9]. - In 2023, the output was 31.9359 billion, the net import volume was 2.9313 billion, the apparent consumption was 34.8672 billion, and the ending inventory was 446.5 million. The production capacity growth rate was 14.1%, and the consumption growth rate was 5.9% [9]. - In 2024, the output was 34.25 billion, the net import volume was 3.6 billion, the apparent consumption was 37.85 billion, and the ending inventory was 514 million. The production capacity growth rate was 13.5%, and the consumption growth rate was 8.4% [9]. - In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to be 49.06 billion, with a production capacity growth rate of 11.0% [9].