大越期货玻璃早报-20251029

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The glass market has a weak fundamental situation, with supply at a low level and showing signs of a slight rebound, while terminal demand remains sluggish. The report anticipates that the glass market will mainly experience a volatile and weak trend in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 1113 yuan/ton, showing a 1.64% increase; the spot price of Shahe Safety large - sized sheets was 1044 yuan/ton, a 0.76% decrease; the main basis was - 69 yuan/ton, a 60.47% increase [7]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large - sized sheets in the spot benchmark area of Hebei Shahe was 1044 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. Fundamental Analysis Cost - side No specific content was summarized in the given text. Production and Supply - The number of operating national float glass production lines was 226, with an operating rate of 76.35%, and the daily melting volume was 161,300 tons, at the lowest level in the same period in history but showing signs of stabilization and recovery [23][25]. Demand - In August 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.8602 million tons. Downstream processing plant orders were generally weak, and real - estate terminal demand was sluggish [29]. Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises was 66.613 million weight boxes, a 3.64% increase from the previous week, and the inventory was above the five - year average [44]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2017 to 2024E, the production, consumption, and other data of float glass showed certain fluctuations. For example, in 2024E, the production was 55.1 million tons, with a growth rate of 3.94%, and the consumption was 53.1 million tons, with a decline rate of 1.15% [45]. Influencing Factors Positive Factors - Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, there is an expectation of capacity clearance in the float glass industry. Some production lines in the Shahe area are undergoing "coal - to - gas" conversion, increasing supply - side disturbances [4]. Negative Factors - Real - estate terminal demand remains weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low in the same period. The capital collection situation in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processing plants are cautious, mainly focusing on digesting raw glass inventory [5]. Main Logic - Glass supply has declined to a relatively low level in the same period, and there have been more supply - side disturbances recently. However, the recovery of terminal demand is weak, so it is expected that the glass market will mainly show a volatile trend [6].