Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [2]. - The supply of soda ash is at a high level, terminal demand is declining, inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [4]. Summary by Directory Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 1,239 yuan/ton, the low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1,185 yuan/ton, and the main basis was - 54 yuan. Compared with the previous value, the closing price decreased by 0.56%, the Shahe price decreased by 0.42%, and the basis decreased by 3.57% [6]. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1,185 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. Production Profit - The profit of heavy soda ash by North China ammonia - soda process was - 92.40 yuan/ton, and that by East China combined - soda process was - 199 yuan/ton, at a historical low [15]. Capacity and Output - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash was 84.94%. The weekly output was 74.06 tons, including 41 tons of heavy soda ash, at a historical high [18][20]. - From 2023 to 2025, there were significant capacity expansions in the soda ash industry. In 2023, the new capacity was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; in 2025, the planned new capacity was 7.5 million tons, with 1 million tons actually put into production [21]. Demand Analysis - The weekly production - sales rate of soda ash was 99.78% [24]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass was 161,300 tons, and the operating rate of 76.35% was stable. The daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass continued to decline, and the demand for soda ash weakened [27]. Inventory Analysis - The national soda ash inventory in factories was 1.7021 million tons, an increase of 0.09% from the previous week, and the inventory was above the 5 - year average [34]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective capacity, output, operating rate, import, export, etc. [35]. Influencing Factors - Positive Factors: The daily melting volume of float glass was stable [3]. - Negative Factors: The supply of soda ash was at a high level, the terminal demand declined, the inventory was at a high level in the same period, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry had not been effectively improved [4].
大越期货纯碱早报-20251029
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-10-29 01:35