PTA、MEG早报-20251029

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - PTA: The PTA futures fluctuated and closed higher, with a fair negotiation atmosphere in the spot market. The spot basis changed little, and the market's trading focus gradually shifted to November. In the short - term, the absolute price is expected to fluctuate with the cost side, and attention should be paid to the changes in plant operations [5]. - MEG: On Tuesday, the price of ethylene glycol fluctuated and declined, and the basis weakened synchronously. Due to the wind - induced port closure this week, the vessel warehousing was postponed, and the apparent inventory is expected to decline slightly early next week. The price rebounded under the influence of news and cost, but the upside is still limited. In the fourth quarter, the overall inventory accumulation of ethylene glycol is around 400,000 tons, and the domestic supply is abundant. After the delivery cycle ends, the spot buying in the trading link will also weaken. It is expected that the price will be adjusted within a range in the short - term, with continuous upward pressure [7]. - Overall: The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and the upper resistance level should be monitored when the market rebounds [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - No relevant information provided in the report. 3.2. Daily Tips - PTA: The fundamentals are neutral. The spot price is 4,535 yuan/ton, the basis of the 01 contract is - 79, and the market is in contango. The PTA factory inventory is 4.07 days, a decrease of 0.01 days from the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average. The net position of the main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing [5][6]. - MEG: The fundamentals are neutral. The price of ethylene glycol fluctuated and declined on Tuesday, and the basis weakened. The spot price was at a premium of 69 - 70 yuan/ton to the 01 contract in the afternoon. The inventory in East China is 481,000 tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons from the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average. The net position of the main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing [7]. 3.3. Today's Focus - PTA Supply - Demand Balance: The report provides the PTA supply - demand balance table from January 2024 to December 2025, including data on PTA production capacity, output, consumption, and inventory [11]. - Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance: The report provides the ethylene glycol supply - demand balance table from January 2024 to December 2025, including data on ethylene glycol production, import, consumption, and port inventory [12]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - Price Data: On October 28, 2025, compared with the previous day, the spot price of naphtha in CFR Japan increased by 9 dollars/ton to 584.5 dollars/ton; the spot price of p - xylene in CFR Taiwan, China increased by 17 dollars/ton to 854 dollars/ton; the CCFEI price index of PTA in the domestic market decreased by 288 yuan/ton to 4,232 yuan/ton; the CCFEI price index of ethylene glycol in the domestic market decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 4,140 yuan/ton [13]. - Inventory Data: The report shows the historical inventory data of PTA factory inventory, MEG port inventory, PET bottle - chip inventory, and polyester fiber inventory from 2021 - 2025 [43][45]. - Profit Data: The report shows the historical profit data of PTA processing, MEG production, and polyester fiber production from 2022 - 2025 [13][62][64]. - Operating Rate Data: The report shows the historical operating rate data of PTA, p - xylene, ethylene glycol, polyester factories, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms from 2020 - 2025 [54][56][58]