沪锌期货早报-20251029

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The report anticipates that the Shanghai zinc futures contract ZN2512 will show a trend of fluctuating upward, with the LME zinc inventory and warrants continuing to decline while the SHFE warrants remaining at a high level [2][19]. 3. Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Analysis - Supply and Demand: In August 2025, global zinc sheet production was 1.1507 million tons, and consumption was 1.1717 million tons, resulting in a supply shortage of 21,000 tons. From January to August 2025, global zinc sheet production was 9.0885 million tons, and consumption was 9.3698 million tons, with a supply shortage of 281,300 tons. In August 2025, global zinc ore production was 1.0696 million tons, and from January to August 2025, it was 8.4457 million tons, indicating a bullish outlook [2]. - Basis: The spot price was 22,310, and the basis was 0, showing a neutral stance [2]. - Inventory: On October 28, the LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,800 tons to 35,250 tons, while the SHFE zinc inventory warrants increased by 2,547 tons to 68,271 tons, presenting a neutral situation [2]. - Market Trend: The previous day, Shanghai zinc showed a fluctuating downward trend, closing above the 20 - day moving average, with the 20 - day moving average trending upward, suggesting a bullish outlook [2]. - Main Position: The main players held a net short position, with a reduction in short positions, indicating a bearish outlook [2]. 3.2 October 28 Zinc Futures Market Quotes - The trading volume of zinc futures on October 28 was 201,703 lots, with a total trading value of 2.25645709 billion yuan. The open interest was 209,097 lots, a decrease of 4,634 lots [3]. 3.3 October 28 Domestic Spot Market Quotes - Zinc Concentrate: The domestic zinc concentrate spot TC was 3,200 yuan/metal ton, and the imported comprehensive TC was 105 US dollars/thousand tons, both remaining unchanged [4]. - Zinc Ingot: The price of 0 zinc in Shanghai was in the range of 22,260 - 22,360 yuan/ton, with an average price of 22,310 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 22,180 - 22,280 yuan/ton, with an average price of 22,230 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan/ton; in Tianjin, it was 22,275 - 22,375 yuan/ton, with an average price of 22,325 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan/ton; in Zhejiang, it was 22,305 - 22,405 yuan/ton, with an average price of 22,355 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton [4]. 3.4 National Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics (October 16 - 27, 2025) - As of October 27, the total social inventory of zinc ingots in major domestic markets was 164,700 tons, an increase of 18,000 tons compared to October 20 and an increase of 12,000 tons compared to October 23 [5]. 3.5 October 28 Zinc Futures Warehouse Receipt Report - The total zinc warehouse receipts on the SHFE on October 28 were 68,271 tons, an increase of 2,547 tons. Among them, Guangdong had 38,470 tons, and Tianjin had 29,801 tons [7]. 3.6 October 28 LME Zinc Inventory Distribution - On October 28, the LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,800 tons to 35,250 tons, with registered warrants of 28,425 tons and cancelled warrants of 6,825 tons, accounting for 19.36% [8]. 3.7 October 28 National Zinc Concentrate Price Summary - The prices of 50% zinc concentrate in various regions increased by 70 yuan/ton. For example, in Jiyuan, it was 17,390 yuan/ton; in Chenzhou, it was 17,590 yuan/ton [10]. 3.8 October 28 National Zinc Ingot Smelter Price Quotes - The prices of 0 zinc ingots from various smelters increased by 60 yuan/ton. For example, the price of zinc ingots from Hunan Zhuzhou Smelting was 22,540 yuan/ton; from Yunnan Chihong Zinc & Germanium was 21,970 yuan/ton [13]. 3.9 September 2025 Domestic Refined Zinc Production - In September 2025, the actual production of refined zinc was 499,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.53% and a year - on - year increase of 16.13%. The planned production for October was 509,600 tons [15]. 3.10 October 28 Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee Quotes - The domestic zinc concentrate processing fees for 50% grade varied by region, ranging from 3,000 to 3,900 yuan/metal ton. The imported processing fee for 48% grade was 105 US dollars/thousand tons [17]. 3.11 October 28 SHFE Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking - For the zinc contract zn2512, the total trading volume of members was 204,047 lots, an increase of 23,222 lots. The total long position was 83,603 lots, an increase of 523 lots, and the total short position was 78,964 lots, a decrease of 114 lots [18].