沪镍、不锈钢早报-20251029

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Report's Core View - The overall view of Shanghai Nickel (SHFE Nickel) 2512 is to adopt a wide - range oscillation strategy around the 20 - day moving average, testing the cost support. The long - term supply surplus pattern remains unchanged, but there are some short - term factors affecting the market [2]. - The view of Stainless Steel 2512 is to operate in a wide - range oscillation around the 20 - day moving average [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Price Overview - Nickel Futures and Spot Prices: On October 28, the price of SHFE Nickel main contract was 120,560 yuan, down 1,840 yuan from the previous day; LME Nickel was 15,245, down 90; the price of Stainless Steel main contract was 12,750 yuan, down 65 yuan. Among spot prices, SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 122,150 yuan, down 900 yuan; 1 Jinchuan nickel was 123,400 yuan, down 900 yuan; 1 imported nickel was 121,500 yuan, down 750 yuan; nickel beans were 123,550 yuan, down 750 yuan [11]. - Stainless Steel Spot Prices: Cold - rolled coil 304*2B in Wuxi remained at 13,800 yuan; in Foshan, it was 13,750 yuan, down 50 yuan; in Hangzhou, it remained at 13,700 yuan; in Shanghai, it remained at 13,750 yuan [11]. 3.2. Inventory - Nickel Inventory: As of October 28, LME nickel inventory was 251,436 tons, an increase of 198 tons; SHFE nickel warehouse receipts were 31,385 tons, an increase of 1,605 tons; the total inventory was 282,821 tons, an increase of 1,803 tons [14]. - Stainless Steel Inventory: On October 24, the inventory in Wuxi was 601,100 tons, in Foshan was 302,600 tons, and the national inventory was 1,027,400 tons, a decrease of 13,800 tons compared with the previous period. Among them, the inventory of 300 - series stainless steel was 649,300 tons, a decrease of 5,900 tons. As of October 28, the stainless steel warehouse receipts were 73,896 tons, unchanged from the previous day [18][19]. 3.3. Cost - Nickel Ore and Ferronickel Prices: On October 28, the price of laterite nickel ore CIF with Ni1.5% was 58 US dollars per wet ton, unchanged; with Ni0.9% was 30 US dollars per wet ton, unchanged. The freight from the Philippines to Lianyungang was 11.5 US dollars per ton, unchanged; to Tianjin Port was 12.5 US dollars per ton, unchanged. The price of high - nickel ferronickel was 926.5 yuan per nickel point, down 2 yuan; the price of low - nickel ferronickel was 3,150 yuan per ton, unchanged [23]. - Stainless Steel Production Cost: The traditional production cost was 12,904 yuan, the scrap steel production cost was 13,125 yuan, and the low - nickel + pure nickel production cost was 16,718 yuan [25]. - Nickel Import Cost: The converted import price was 122,324 yuan per ton [28]. 3.4. Fundamental Factors - Nickel Fundamentals: The price of nickel ore is firm, the rainy season in the Philippines is approaching, and mines are holding prices. The price of ferronickel is stable with a slight decline, and the cost line has loosened downward. The inventory of stainless steel has decreased slightly, and the new energy vehicle production and sales data are good, but the overall boost is limited. The long - term supply surplus pattern remains unchanged [2]. - Stainless Steel Fundamentals: The spot price of stainless steel has decreased slightly. In the short term, the price of nickel ore is firm, the freight is stable, the price of ferronickel is stable with a slight decline, the cost line has moved down, and the inventory of stainless steel has decreased slightly [4]. 3.5. Basis - Nickel Basis: The spot price was 122,150 yuan, and the basis was 1,590 yuan, showing a bullish signal [2]. - Stainless Steel Basis: The average price of stainless steel was 13,750 yuan, and the basis was 1,000 yuan, showing a bullish signal [4]. 3.6. Market Sentiment (Position) - Nickel Market Sentiment: The net position of the main players is short, and the short position has increased, showing a bearish signal [2].