贵金属早报-20251029

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Market waits for the Fed's interest rate decision on Wednesday. Gold prices first declined and then rebounded, while silver prices slightly recovered. There is still support from easing expectations, but gold prices face pressure due to optimistic trade negotiations. The downward pressure on gold prices persists with the return of optimistic trade expectations. The impact of the Fed's meeting on prices may be short - term [4][6]. - Gold: Despite the end of the decline in gold prices before the Fed's decision, the pressure from trade optimism remains. The premium of Shanghai gold remains at 1 yuan/gram. The Fed's meeting may bring back the support of easing, but the impact time is short [4]. - Silver: Silver prices follow gold prices. The premium of Shanghai silver has slightly expanded to 420 yuan/gram, and the domestic sentiment remains strong. Silver prices may be supported by the Fed's decision, but the impact is short - term [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - Gold: The US three major stock indexes rose across the board, European three major stock indexes had mixed closing results. The 10 - year US Treasury yield fell 0.01 basis points to 3.976%, the US dollar index fell 0.09% to 98.73, and the offshore RMB appreciated against the US dollar. COMEX gold futures fell 1.28% to $3968.10 per ounce [4]. - Silver: Similar to gold, the market waited for the Fed's decision. The US three major stock indexes rose across the board, European three major stock indexes had mixed closing results. COMEX silver futures rose 0.78% to $47.14 per ounce [6]. 3.2. Daily Tips - Gold: - Fundamentals: Market sentiment is neutral. The Fed's decision is awaited, and there are both support from easing expectations and pressure from trade optimism [4]. - Basis: The basis is - 3.24, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is bearish [5]. - Inventory: Gold futures warehouse receipts are 87,015 kilograms and remain unchanged, which is bearish [5]. - Technical Chart: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, indicating a neutral situation [5]. - Main Position: The main net position is long, but the long position of the main force has decreased, which is bullish [5]. - Silver: - Fundamentals: Market sentiment is neutral. The Fed's decision is awaited, and silver prices are slightly recovering. Silver is stronger than gold under the current situation [6]. - Basis: The basis is - 14, with the spot at a discount to the futures, indicating a neutral situation [7]. - Inventory: Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts increased by 9,784 kilograms to 657,427 kilograms, which is bullish [7]. - Technical Chart: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, indicating a neutral situation [7]. - Main Position: The main net position is long, but the long position of the main force has decreased, which is bullish [7]. 3.3. Today's Focus - Events: At 08:30, Australia's Q3 CPI; throughout the day, the Hong Kong stock market is closed; time to be determined, US President Trump visits South Korea and attends the APEC leaders' summit; at 12:05, New Zealand's central bank governor Hawkesby talks about central bank independence; at 20:30 (possibly), the US September merchandise trade balance; at 21:45, the Bank of Canada announces the interest rate decision; at 22:00, the US September pending home sales index; after the European stock market closes, Deutsche Bank releases its earnings report; at 02:00 the next day, the Fed releases the FOMC monetary policy meeting's resolution statement; at 02:30 the next day, Fed Chairman Powell holds a regular press conference [16]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - Gold: The logic for gold is that after Trump's inauguration, the world has entered a period of extreme turmoil. The inflation expectation has shifted to the economic recession expectation, and gold prices are difficult to fall. The verification between the new US government's policy expectations and the reality continues, and the sentiment for gold prices is high, still prone to rise and difficult to fall [11]. - Silver: Silver prices mainly follow gold prices. The concern about tariffs has a stronger impact on silver prices, and there is a risk of an enlarged increase. The influencing factors include both bullish factors such as global turmoil, increased expectation of interest rate cuts, tense situations in Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East, and bearish factors such as the end of interest rate cuts and the improvement of economic expectations [14][15]. 3.5. Position Data - Gold: The long position of the top 20 in Shanghai gold increased by 0.25% to 169,983, the short position decreased by 2.02% to 65,686, and the net position increased by 1.73% to 104,297 on October 28 compared to October 27. The SPDR gold ETF position continues to decrease [30][34]. - Silver: The long position of the top 20 in Shanghai silver decreased by 7.41% to 322,389, the short position decreased by 0.46% to 251,213, and the net position decreased by 25.71% to 71,176 on October 28 compared to October 27. The silver ETF position continues to decrease but is higher than the same period in the past two years. The Shanghai silver warehouse receipts stop falling and are at the lowest level in the past six years, while the COMEX silver warehouse receipts continue to decrease [31][37][40].