白糖早报-20251029

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Recent trends show weak external sugar prices while domestic Zhengzhou sugar prices are relatively strong, especially for near - term contracts. Attention should be paid to the investment opportunities in the spread between the 1 - 5 contracts. The main 01 contract of Zhengzhou sugar has a short - term rebound, but in the long - term, the divergence between internal and external trends is unsustainable. Attention should be paid to the upper pressure level of 5500 [5][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review No information provided. 3.2 Daily Tips - Fundamentals: Czarnikow raised the global sugar surplus forecast for the 25/26 season to 7.4 million tons, 1.2 million tons higher than the August estimate. StoneX predicted a 2.77 - million - ton surplus in the global sugar market for the 25/26 season. ISO estimated a 231,000 - ton supply gap for the 25/26 season, a significant reduction from the previous forecast. By the end of August 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China was 11.1621 million tons, and the cumulative sugar sales were 10 million tons, with a sales rate of 89.6%. In September 2025, China imported 550,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 150,000 tons, and the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 151,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 135,100 tons. This is bearish [5]. - Basis: The spot price in Liuzhou is 5780, and the basis is 297 (for the 01 contract), indicating a premium over futures, which is bullish [5]. - Inventory: As of the end of August, the industrial inventory in the 24/25 sugar - crushing season was 1.16 million tons, which is neutral [5]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [5]. - Main Position: The position is bearish, with the net short position increasing, and the main trend is bearish, which is bearish [5]. 3.3 Today's Focus No information provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Supply and Demand Forecasts: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 global sugar supply - demand situation. ISO predicted a narrowing supply gap to 200,000 tons (basically balanced); StoneX forecast a 2.77 - million - ton surplus; Czarnikow raised the surplus forecast to 7.4 million tons; Datagro predicted a 1.53 - million - ton surplus; Covrig Analytics forecast a 4.2 - million - ton surplus; Alvean/Louis Dreyfus predicted a 400,000 - ton surplus; Green Pool forecast a 1.15 - million - ton surplus [35]. - China's Sugar Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: In the 2025/26 season, the sugarcane planting area is expected to be 1.23 million hectares, the beet planting area is 210,000 hectares, the sugar production is estimated to be 11.2 million tons, the import is 5 million tons, and the consumption is 15.9 million tons [37]. - Import Cost: In September 2025, the average price of ICE raw sugar was about 15.79 cents per pound, and the cost of imported Brazilian raw sugar after 50% tariff was 5454 yuan per ton [42]. 3.5 Position Data No information provided.