Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of iron ore show that steel mills' hot metal production is decreasing, the arrival level this month has decreased, overall supply and demand are loose, port inventories are decreasing, a crude steel production reduction policy is expected to be introduced, and the trade war is easing, presenting a neutral situation [2]. - The basis indicates that the spot prices of PB powder and Brazilian blend at Rizhao Port are at a premium to the futures, which is bullish [2]. - Regarding inventory, port inventory is 15,109.49 tons, increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year, showing a neutral situation [2]. - The price on the disk is above the 20 - day line while the 20 - day line is downward, presenting a neutral situation [2]. - The net long position of the iron ore main contract is increasing, which is bullish [2]. - The expectation is that domestic demand is decreasing, and the plan to reduce production capacity will impact the market, suggesting a high - level oscillation strategy [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Bullish Factors - Hot metal production remains at a high level [6]. - Port inventory is decreasing [6]. - There are import losses [6]. - The price of downstream steel products is rising, indicating a strong ability to bear high - priced raw materials [6]. Bearish Factors - Future shipping volume will increase [6]. - Terminal demand remains weak [6]. Other Catalogs - Iron ore port spot price: The report mentions the spot prices of PB powder and Brazilian blend at Rizhao Port for basis calculation but does not elaborate further [2]. - Iron ore basis: The basis of PB powder at Rizhao Port is 46, and that of Brazilian blend is 64, with the spot at a premium to the futures [2]. - Iron ore import profit: The report mentions import losses as a bullish factor but does not provide specific data [6]. - Iron ore shipping volume: Future shipping volume is expected to increase as a bearish factor [6]. - Iron ore port and steel mill inventory: Port inventory is 15,109.49 tons, increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year [2]. - Iron ore arrival and dispatch volume: The report mentions that the arrival level this month has decreased but does not provide specific data [2]. - Iron ore daily consumption: Not mentioned in the report. - Steel enterprise production situation: Steel mills' hot metal production is decreasing [2]. - Iron ore port daily trading volume and steel mills' daily hot metal: Not mentioned in the report.
铁矿石早报（2025-10-29）-20251029
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-10-29 01:37