永安期货有色早报-20251029

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Report's Core View - The overall market is influenced by tariff negotiation progress and the 15th Five - Year Plan communique. Different metals have different fundamentals and investment strategies. For copper, maintain a callback - buying idea; for aluminum, hold at low prices in the long - term; for zinc, be cautious in trading; for nickel, observe; for stainless steel, the fundamentals are weak; for lead, observe the regeneration and warehouse receipts; for tin, follow the macro - mood in the short - term and hold at low prices in the long - term; for industrial silicon, prices are expected to be weak in the short - term and cycle at the bottom in the long - term; for lithium carbonate, the information about industrial silicon is repeated, and there is no specific core view for lithium carbonate presented separately [1][2][3][6][10][13][16] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - Market Data: From Oct 22 - 28, the Shanghai copper spot price decreased by 15, the waste - refined copper price difference decreased by 203, and LME inventory decreased by 1400 [1] - Fundamentals: Market sentiment is affected by tariff negotiations and the 15th Five - Year Plan. There are supply disturbances in waste copper, and the copper cable and aluminum cable start - up rates diverge [1] - Strategy: Maintain a callback - buying idea, pay attention to the support around $10,300 for LME copper, and consider selling put options below $10,300 or gradually establishing virtual inventory [1] Aluminum - Market Data: From Oct 22 - 28, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price remained unchanged, the domestic alumina price decreased by 4, and LME inventory decreased by 3625 [1] - Fundamentals: Operating capacity is flat, photovoltaic component production is stable, there is seasonal inventory accumulation, and the European electrolytic aluminum plant has a 200,000 - ton production reduction [1] - Strategy: Keep an eye on terminal demand in the short - term and hold at low prices in the long - term [1] Zinc - Market Data: From Oct 22 - 28, the zinc price oscillated upwards, the spot premium decreased by 10, and LME inventory decreased by 1800 [2] - Fundamentals: Supply - side TC is declining, demand is seasonally weak domestically and has some resistance overseas, and the export window has opened [2] - Strategy: Observe in the short - term, gradually take profit on domestic - foreign positive spreads, look for far - month reverse spreads, and pay attention to the 12 - 02 positive spread opportunity [2] Nickel - Market Data: From Oct 22 - 28, the Shanghai nickel spot price decreased by 950, and LME inventory increased by 156 [3] - Fundamentals: Supply is at a high level, demand is weak, and inventories are increasing both at home and abroad [3] - Strategy: Observe due to short - term weak fundamentals and increased macro - uncertainty [3] Stainless Steel - Market Data: From Oct 22 - 28, the 304 cold - rolled coil price remained unchanged, and the waste stainless steel price decreased by 50 [3] - Fundamentals: Supply is slightly increasing, demand is mainly for rigid needs, costs are stable, and inventories are at a high level [3] - Strategy: No specific strategy is provided, but the fundamentals are overall weak [3] Lead - Market Data: From Oct 22 - 28, the lead price increased due to spot tightness, the spot premium increased by 10, and LME inventory decreased by 2700 [6] - Fundamentals: Supply - side regeneration is slow, demand has reversed the weakening expectation, and the spot is in short supply [6] - Strategy: Expect the price to oscillate narrowly between 17,300 - 17,700, and observe the regeneration and warehouse receipt increase [6] Tin - Market Data: From Oct 22 - 28, the tin price oscillated, the position decreased by 5024, and LME inventory decreased by 25 [10] - Fundamentals: Supply - side processing fees are low, and demand is mainly rigid. Overseas production has uncertainties [10] - Strategy: Follow the macro - mood in the short - term and hold at low prices close to the cost line in the long - term [10] Industrial Silicon - Market Data: From Oct 22 - 28, the basis of different grades changed, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 141 [11] - Fundamentals: Supply will decline in the dry season, but considering polysilicon plant maintenance, Q4 supply - demand is in a balanced and slightly loose state with a monthly inventory accumulation of 400,000 - 500,000 tons [13][16] - Strategy: Prices are expected to be weak in the short - term and cycle at the bottom in the long - term [13][16] Lithium Carbonate - Market Data: From Oct 22 - 28, the SMM electric carbon price increased by 1950, the SMM industrial carbon price increased by 2000, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 404 [16] - Fundamentals: No specific fundamentals for lithium carbonate are presented separately, and the information about industrial silicon is repeated [16] - Strategy: No specific strategy for lithium carbonate is provided [16]