大越期货甲醇早报-20251029

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For methanol 2601, the mainland market has limited room for rise and fall due to factors such as low upstream factory inventories, strong coal prices, high overall mainland plant operation levels, squeezed olefin profits, and high port inventories. The port market is expected to maintain a high - volatility state with both rises and falls this week, affected by the sanctions event, with weakening downward momentum but a weak fundamental situation. The report suggests paying attention to the follow - up impact of the sanctions event, Iranian gas restrictions, and coastal MTO operation [4]. - It is expected that the methanol price will fluctuate mainly this week, with MA2601 operating in the range of 2230 - 2280 [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips - Fundamentals: Mainland: Low upstream factory inventories and strong coal prices support the cost side, but high operation levels in some areas and squeezed olefin profits have a negative impact. The market has limited upward and downward space. Port: Affected by the sanctions event, the downward momentum of the port market is weakened, but it will maintain high volatility [4]. - Basis: The spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2230 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract is - 11, indicating that the spot is at a discount to the futures [4]. - Inventory: As of October 16, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports is 125.89 tons, a slight decrease of 1.41 tons from the previous period. The available circulating methanol in coastal areas has decreased by 6.34 tons to 87.70 tons [4]. - Market Trend: The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is below the moving average [4]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing [4]. 2. Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bullish Factors: Some device shutdowns (Yulin Kaiyue, Xinjiang Xinyao), reduced methanol operation in Iran, low port inventories, the commissioning of a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Jingmen, a planned commissioning of a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong this month, and external procurement of methanol by northwest CTO factories [6]. - Bearish Factors: Resumption of previously shut - down devices (Inner Mongolia Donghua), expected concentrated arrivals at ports in the second half of the month, the traditional off - season for formaldehyde, a significant decline in MTBE operation, certain profit margins for coal - to - methanol production, and inventory accumulation in some factories in the production area due to poor sales [7]. 3. Fundamental Data - Price Data: In the spot market, prices in various regions such as Jiangsu, Shandong, Hebei, and Inner Mongolia have changed to different extents. In the futures market, the closing price of the main contract has decreased, and the number of registered warrants has decreased. There have also been changes in price spreads such as basis, import spreads, and regional spreads [8]. - Operation Rate: The weighted average national operation rate is 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81% from the previous week. The operation rates in Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest regions have also decreased [8]. - Inventory Data: The inventory in East China ports has increased by 3.02 tons, while the inventory in South China ports has decreased by 1.93 tons [8]. 4. Maintenance Status - Domestic Devices: Many domestic methanol production enterprises are in a state of maintenance, including Shaanxi Black Cat, Qinghai Zhonghao, etc., with different maintenance start and end times and losses [56]. - Overseas Devices: Some Iranian methanol devices are in the process of restarting or operating at a low level, and devices in other countries such as Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and the United States have different operating conditions [57]. - Olefin Devices: Some domestic olefin production enterprises are in a state of maintenance, normal operation, or load adjustment, such as Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy, Ningbo Fude, etc. [58].