大越期货菜粕早报-20251029

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to oscillate in the range of 2360 - 2420. The market is awaiting the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The spot demand peak season has passed, but low inventory supports the market. With uncertainties in China - Canada trade negotiations, the market lacks short - term guidance and remains volatile [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is in a range - bound oscillation. The fundamentals are neutral, the basis is bullish, the inventory situation is bullish, the price trend on the disk is neutral, the main positions show a bullish signal, and the short - term market is expected to return to an oscillatory pattern [9]. 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the off - season after the long holiday, with supply tightening and demand weakening, which suppresses the market. Canada's rapeseed is in the harvesting stage, but trade issues may reduce short - term exports to China. China's preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports is established, with a 75.8% import deposit. The final result is still uncertain. Global rapeseed production is increasing this year, and geopolitical conflicts may support commodity prices [11]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors include the preliminary anti - dumping determination and import deposit on Canadian rapeseed, and low inventory pressure on oil mills. Bearish factors are the approaching off - season of domestic rapeseed meal demand and the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping result. The main market focus is on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12]. 4. Fundamental Data - From October 20th to 28th, the average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly. Rapeseed meal futures prices bottomed out and rebounded, while spot prices were relatively stable, with a small - amplitude fluctuation in the spot premium. The import volume of rapeseed remained stable in October, and the import cost was affected by tariffs. Oil mills' rapeseed inventory continued to decline, and rapeseed meal inventory was flat week - on - week. The amount of rapeseed crushed in oil mills remained at a low level. Aquatic fish prices rebounded slightly, while shrimp and shellfish prices remained stable [13][15][22]. 5. Position Data - The main long positions in rapeseed meal increased, and capital flowed in [9].