建信期货多晶硅日报-20251029

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The polysilicon market is expected to operate cautiously and strongly within the range. The supply in the fourth quarter can meet the terminal demand, but the industry's internal improvement momentum is weak, and the market focus is on the policy side, which is currently in a vacuum period [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - Market Performance: The main contract price of polysilicon ran strongly within the range. The closing price of the PS2601 contract was 54,335 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.58%. The trading volume was 208,200 lots, and the open interest was 114,932 lots, with a net increase of 9,055 lots [4]. - Spot Price: The transaction price range of polysilicon n-type re-feeding material was 49,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 53,200 yuan/ton, flat compared to the previous period. The transaction price range of n-type granular silicon was 50,000 - 51,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 50,500 yuan/ton, also flat compared to the previous period [4]. - Future Outlook: In the fourth quarter, the expected output of polysilicon is 382,000 tons, with a monthly average output of 127,300 tons. The current output level can meet the terminal demand of about 63GW. The demand for downstream silicon wafers and cells is stable, but the industry's internal improvement momentum is weak. The pressure comes from the weak terminal demand after the "rush installation" period. The market focus is expected to remain on the policy side, and the market will operate cautiously and strongly within the range [4]. 3.2 Market News - On October 28, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 9,150 lots, a net decrease of 90 lots compared to the previous trading day [5]. - In September 2025, the newly installed photovoltaic capacity was 9.66GW, a month-on-month increase of 31.25%. From January to September, the cumulative newly installed photovoltaic capacity was 240.27GW [5]. - The Communique of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee proposed to accelerate the construction of a new energy system, build a modern industrial system, and promote the high - quality development of the service industry [5].