建信期货沥青日报-20251029

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term asphalt follows the upward trend of oil prices, but the sustainability is questionable. Traders with long positions should set flexible stop - profit points. The price may fall again later. The demand side of asphalt is seasonally weakening, and the actual demand continues to be weaker than expected [7] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures Market: For BU2601, the opening price was 3295 yuan/ton, the closing price was 3279 yuan/ton, the highest was 3295 yuan/ton, the lowest was 3263 yuan/ton, the decline was 0.79%, and the trading volume was 16.66 million lots. For BU2512, the opening price was 3306 yuan/ton, the closing price was 3298 yuan/ton, the highest was 3306 yuan/ton, the lowest was 3272 yuan/ton, the decline was 0.75%, and the trading volume was 2.60 million lots [6] - Spot Market: In the spot market, the asphalt price in South China slightly increased, while those in North China and Shandong decreased. The rest of the regions remained relatively stable. The halt of the upward trend of crude oil and asphalt futures intensified the wait - and - see sentiment in the asphalt spot market [6] - Supply and Demand: Some refineries have production reduction or shutdown expectations, while others plan to increase production, and the overall start - up load rate is expected to remain basically the same. The demand side is seasonally weakening. The road projects in the Northeast and Northwest are coming to an end, and the rigid demand for asphalt is shrinking rapidly. In North China and Shandong, only some key projects are rushing to work, and the demand increment is scarce. The construction in the South is stable, but the slow resource consumption reflects weak demand. The lack of funds restricts project progress, and the actual demand for asphalt continues to be weaker than expected [7] 3.2 Industry News - Shandong Market: The mainstream transaction price of 70A grade asphalt was 3210 - 3620 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The halt of the upward trend of international oil prices and asphalt futures, combined with the release of long - term contracts by Hongrun, led to an abundant supply of spot market resources and lower prices, causing other refineries to follow the price cut [8] - South China Market: The mainstream transaction price of 70A grade asphalt was 3360 - 3580 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The planned asphalt production of Maoming Petrochemical and Guangzhou Petrochemical in November is relatively small, and the price increase by major refineries boosted the market sentiment. However, the abundant social inventory and the approaching contract expiration at the end of the month limited the price increase [8] 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including the spot price of asphalt in South China, the basis of Shandong asphalt, the daily start - up rate of asphalt, the comprehensive profit of Shandong asphalt, asphalt cracking, asphalt social inventory, asphalt manufacturer inventory, and asphalt warehouse receipts, with data sources from wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [12][15][19]