建信期货铁矿石日评-20251029

Report Overview - Report Type: Iron Ore Daily Review [1] - Date: October 29, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - On October 28, the iron ore futures main contract 2601 fluctuated upwards, closing at 792.5 yuan/ton, up 1.93%. The results of the Sino-US negotiations exceeded expectations, boosting market risk appetite. The Tangshan production restriction rumor also restored confidence in the black industry chain. Coupled with the continuous decline in arrivals, the iron ore price was supported in the short term. However, the fundamentals showed that the shipments from Australia and Brazil increased, and the arrivals decreased significantly. The daily average pig iron output continued to decline, and the steel production profit continued to narrow, which may suppress the demand for raw materials in the future [7][10][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Future Outlook 3.1.1 Market Review - On October 28, the iron ore futures main contract 2601 opened higher and fluctuated, and then rose again in the afternoon, closing at 792.5 yuan/ton, up 1.93%. The prices of major iron ore external quotations and those at Qingdao Port increased compared with the previous trading day. The KDJ indicator of the daily line of the iron ore 2601 contract continued to rise, and the MACD indicator of the daily line formed a golden cross [7][9]. 3.1.2 Future Outlook - News: On October 26, Sino-US representatives negotiated on issues such as export controls, the extension of the suspension period of reciprocal tariffs, fentanyl tariffs, fentanyl anti-drug cooperation, further expansion of trade, and relevant measures for the US 301 ship charges. The two sides reached a preliminary consensus and will fulfill their internal approval procedures. The results of this negotiation exceeded market expectations, and the trade conflict between the two sides showed a trend of easing, which effectively boosted the risk appetite of the capital market. In addition, due to environmental protection requirements, Tangshan plans to implement a 30% production restriction on blast furnaces for 4 days starting from the 27th. As of October 24, the average daily pig iron output in Tangshan was 39.69 million tons. If calculated according to a 30% production restriction, the average daily impact on pig iron output would be 9.1 million tons [10][11]. - Fundamentals: The shipments from Australia and Brazil increased, and the arrivals decreased significantly again, mainly due to the regular decline after the end of the quarterly peak-shipping. It is expected that the arrivals will increase in the future. On the demand side, the average daily pig iron output continued to decline, falling below 2.4 million tons. Considering the continuous narrowing of steel production profits, the profits of current rebar blast furnaces, hot-rolled coils, cold-rolled coils, and electric furnaces have all fallen into a loss state. It is expected that the output will continue to decline in the future, which will suppress the demand for raw materials. In terms of the five major steel products, the demand for steel products recovered last week, and the output of the five major steel products increased slightly. The sustainability of the demand recovery needs to be observed [11]. 3.2 Industry News - "14th Five-Year Plan" suggestions include boosting consumption, promoting cross-strait relations, building a financial power, strengthening original innovation and key core technology research, and cultivating emerging and future industries. On October 27, Mexican President Cibao said that US President Trump agreed to extend the deadline for the agreement on trade, security, and immigration issues between the two countries [12][13]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the prices of major iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port, the spreads between high-grade and low-grade ores and PB powder, the basis between iron ore spot and the January contract, the shipments from Brazil and Australia, the arrivals at 45 ports, the domestic mine capacity utilization rate, the trading volume at major ports, the steel mill's iron ore inventory available days, the imported sintered powder ore inventory, the port iron ore inventory and dispatch volume, the sample steel mill's tax-excluded hot metal cost, the blast furnace and electric furnace start-up rates and capacity utilization rates, the national average daily pig iron output, the apparent consumption of the five major steel products, the weekly output of the five major steel products, and the steel mill's inventory of the five major steel products [15][23][24][27][30][35][40][45].