广发期货《黑色》日报-20251029

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the reports [1][4][6] 2. Core Views Steel Industry - Steel prices showed mixed trends, with some spot prices rising. The 1 - month contract for both rebar and hot - rolled coil is expected to repair at previous highs. Hold long positions and pay attention to the pressure at previous highs (rebar at 3200 yuan/ton and hot - rolled coil at 3400 yuan/ton). The long coking coal and short hot - rolled coil arbitrage has widened, and considering coal production cuts, the arbitrage order can be held [1] Iron Ore Industry - After the previous correction, the negative factors for iron ore have been fully digested. Unilaterally, go long on the iron ore 2601 contract at dips, with a reference range of 770 - 830. It is recommended to conduct a long 1 - month and short 5 - month iron ore positive spread arbitrage [4] Coke and Coking Coal Industry - For coke, short - term adjustments do not affect the bullish view in the fourth quarter. Speculatively, go long on the coke 2601 contract at dips, with a reference range of 1650 - 1850. For coking coal, also go long on the coking coal 2601 contract at dips, with a reference range of 1150 - 1350. The long coking coal and short coke arbitrage can be carried out, but be aware of large price fluctuations [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices in different regions showed slight increases, while some futures contracts had small price changes [1] Cost and Profit - Steel billet and slab prices had different trends. The costs of different types of rebar production and the profits of hot - rolled coil in different regions also changed [1] Production - The daily average pig iron output decreased by 0.4% to 239 thousand tons, while the output of five major steel products increased by 1.0% to 865.3 thousand tons. Rebar and hot - rolled coil production also increased [1] Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 1.7% to 1554.9 thousand tons, and the rebar and hot - rolled coil inventories also decreased [1] Transaction and Demand - The daily average building materials transaction volume decreased by 16.1%, while the apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 2.0%. The apparent demand for rebar and hot - rolled coil also increased [1] Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of different iron ore varieties increased, and the basis and spreads of futures contracts changed [4] Supply - The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 19.5% to 2029.1 thousand tons, while the global weekly shipping volume increased by 1.6% to 3388.4 thousand tons. The monthly national import volume increased by 10.6% to 11632.6 thousand tons [4] Demand - The weekly average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.4%, the weekly average port clearance volume decreased by 7.1%, and the monthly national pig iron and crude steel output decreased [4] Inventory Changes - The inventory at 45 ports decreased by 0.8% to 14311.15 thousand tons, the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 1.1%, and the inventory available days of 64 steel mills decreased by 4.8% [4] Coke and Coking Coal Industry Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - Coke prices in different regions and futures contracts showed different trends, and the basis also changed. The coking profit decreased [6] Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - Coking coal prices in different regions and futures contracts changed, and the basis increased. The sample coal mine profit increased by 6.0% [6] Supply - Coke production decreased, and coking coal production from sample mines also decreased [6] Demand - The pig iron output decreased, and the demand for coking coal, represented by coke production, also decreased [6] Inventory Changes - Coke inventory remained stable overall, with different trends in different sectors. Coking coal inventory increased slightly overall, with different trends in different sectors [6]