工业硅期货早报-20251029

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Industrial Silicon: The supply of industrial silicon increased last week, with demand also rising. The inventory situation varies among different downstream sectors. The cost support has increased, and the 2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8850 - 9060. There are both positive and negative factors in the market, such as cost - rising support and slow post - holiday demand recovery [6]. - Polysilicon: The supply of polysilicon decreased slightly last week, but the October production plan is expected to increase. The demand from downstream silicon wafers, battery cells, and components shows different trends, with some experiencing production cuts. The cost is stable, and the 2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 53540 - 55170 [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week's supply was 101,000 tons, a 2.02% increase from the previous week [6]. - Demand: Last week's demand was 94,000 tons, a 27.03% increase from the previous week. The demand has increased, but different downstream sectors have different inventory and profit situations [6]. - Cost: The production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 in Xinjiang is 3141 yuan/ton, and the cost support has increased during the dry season [6]. - Basis: On October 28, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing in East China was 9300 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was 345 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - Inventory: The social inventory was 559,000 tons, a 0.53% decrease from the previous week; the sample enterprise inventory was 167,700 tons, a 0.17% decrease; the main port inventory was 123,000 tons, a 2.50% increase [6]. - Disk: The MA20 is upward, and the price of the 01 contract closed above the MA20 [6]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and the short position has increased [6]. - Expectation: The supply schedule has increased and is near the historical average level. The demand recovery is at a low level, and the cost support has increased. The 2601 contract of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate between 8850 - 9060 [6]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - Supply: Last week's production was 29,500 tons, a 4.83% decrease from the previous week. The October production plan is 134,500 tons, a 3.46% increase from the previous month [8]. - Demand: The production of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components shows different trends. Some are in a loss - making state, and the production plans for October have decreased to varying degrees [8]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 36,050 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 15,450 yuan/ton [8]. - Basis: On October 28, the price of N - type dense material was 51,500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 1375 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [8]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory was 258,000 tons, a 1.97% increase from the previous week, at a high level compared to the same period in history [8]. - Disk: The MA20 is upward, and the price of the 01 contract closed above the MA20 [8]. - Main Position: The main position is net long, and the long position has increased [8]. - Expectation: The short - term supply schedule will increase, and the medium - term is expected to adjust. The short - term production of downstream products will decrease, and the medium - term is expected to recover. The overall demand shows continuous recovery, and the cost support is stable. The 2601 contract of polysilicon is expected to fluctuate between 53540 - 55170 [8]. 3.2 Market Overview 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon - The prices of different contracts and spot prices of industrial silicon have minor fluctuations. The inventory situation of different regions and ports also shows different trends, with some increasing and some decreasing [15]. 3.2.2 Polysilicon - The prices of different contracts of polysilicon have decreased to varying degrees. The production, inventory, and export volume of downstream silicon wafers, battery cells, and components also show different trends [17]. 3.3 Other Information - There are also various trend charts in the report, including price - basis and delivery product price difference trends, inventory trends, production and capacity utilization trends, cost trends, and supply - demand balance trends of industrial silicon and its downstream products such as organic silicon, aluminum alloy, and polysilicon [19][22][25].