广发期货日评-20251029

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Sino - US trade talks in Malaysia and the Fourth Plenary Session communique have re - boosted market risk appetite. There are potential trading opportunities in various futures markets, but each market has its own influencing factors and trends [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Sector - Stock Index Futures: Stock index futures are in a shrinking and volatile state with sector rotation. One can try to lightly sell put options at support levels or construct bullish call spreads to capture potential rebounds [3]. - Treasury Bonds: After the positive news of restarting treasury bond trading is realized, treasury bond futures may fluctuate in the short - term. One can go long on dips in the unilateral strategy and pay attention to the positive arbitrage strategy due to the rise of IRR [3]. - Precious Metals: Market risk preference is rising, and funds are flowing out rapidly. After a sharp decline, precious metals rebounded. One can buy at low levels below $4000 after the price of gold adjusts and wait for the Fed's decision. Silver may be under pressure if gold falls [3]. - Container Shipping Index (European Line): The main EC contract is oscillating. It is recommended to buy on dips for the December contract [3]. Black Sector - Steel: Tangshan's production restrictions support the strengthening of steel prices. Pay attention to the previous high pressure for long positions and hold the arbitrage of going long on coking coal and short on hot - rolled coils [3]. - Iron Ore: Shipments and arrivals have declined, port stocks have increased, and molten iron has slightly decreased. Iron ore continues to rebound. One can go long on dips and conduct positive arbitrage for the 1 - 5 contracts [3]. - Coking Coal: The price of local coal is running strongly, downstream replenishment demand has recovered, and the price of Mongolian coal has risen. One can go long on coking coal 2601 on dips and conduct the arbitrage of going long on coking coal and short on coke [3]. - Coke: The second - round price increase of mainstream coke enterprises has been officially implemented, and there is still an expectation of further price increases. One can go long on coke 2601 on dips and conduct the arbitrage of going long on coking coal and short on coke [3]. Non - ferrous Sector - Copper: Copper prices are running at a high level. Pay attention to the marginal change in demand. The main contract reference range is 87,000 - 89,000 [3]. - Aluminum Oxide: Spot trading is active, but the short - term oversupply situation is difficult to change. The main contract runs in the range of 2,750 - 2,950 [3]. - Aluminum: The macro - sentiment dominates the market, and the high - level spot discount has widened. The main contract reference range is 20,800 - 21,400 [3]. - Aluminum Alloy: The market follows the decline of aluminum prices, but the spot price is firm. The main contract reference range is 20,200 - 20,800 [3]. - Zinc: The squeeze on LME zinc combined with macro - positives has led to a slight strengthening of zinc prices. The main contract reference range is 21,800 - 22,800 [3]. - Tin: Supported by strong fundamentals, tin prices are running strongly. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - Nickel: The market is oscillating weakly, and the weakening macro - situation exerts some pressure. The main contract reference range is 118,000 - 126,000 [3]. - Stainless Steel: The market is mainly oscillating weakly, and the cost support is still weak. The main contract reference range is 12,500 - 13,000 [3]. Energy and Chemical Sector - Crude Oil: The fading of geopolitical risk premium restricts the rebound of oil prices. In the short - term, oil prices will move in a range. It is recommended to go short on rallies [3]. - Urea: The daily production is expected to gradually increase, the supply of goods is sufficient, and the short - term improvement of the market is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - PX and PTA: The cost center has risen, but the rebound space is limited under weak expectations. For long positions, pay attention to the pressure levels and reduce positions on rallies [3]. - Short - fiber: The inventory pressure is not large, and the short - term support is strong. The operation is similar to that of PTA, and one can shrink the processing margin on rallies [3]. - Bottle Chip: The supply - demand pattern of bottle chips remains loose, the cost side rebounds, and the short - term processing margin of bottle chips will decline. The operation is similar to that of PTA [3]. - Ethanol (EG): The upward driving force of EG has weakened, and the supply - demand structure in the far - month is still weak. One can sell out - of - the - money call options on rallies and conduct reverse arbitrage for the 1 - 5 contracts [3]. - Caustic Soda: The spot trading is okay, and the price is stable. Short positions can stop loss and leave the market [3]. - PVC: The downstream purchasing enthusiasm is low, and the market is oscillating. Wait for the opportunity to go short on rebounds [3]. - Benzene and Styrene: The supply - demand is relatively loose, and the price driving force is limited. Benzene 2603 will follow the oscillation of styrene and oil prices in the short - term. Styrene prices may be under pressure, and it is recommended to go short on the rebound of the December contract [3]. - Synthetic Rubber: The cost side continues to weaken, dragging BR down. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - LLDPE and PP: The overall trading is poor, and the basis remains. Pay attention to the inflection point of inventory reduction for LLDPE. For PP, it is recommended to wait and see [3]. - Methanol: The port market continues to weaken, and the inland market remains stable with okay trading. Pay attention to the positive arbitrage opportunity for the 3 - 5 spread [3]. Agricultural Sector - Soybean Meal: Sino - US relations are warming, and near - month soybeans have cost support. One can go long on the 2601 contract [3]. - Pig: The combination of second - fattening and end - of - month supply reduction makes pig prices run strongly. Exit and wait and see for the 3 - 7 reverse arbitrage [3]. - Corn: The supply pressure still exists, and the market is oscillating weakly. Pay attention to the support around 2,100 [3]. - Palm Oil: Malaysian palm oil has broken through the support level, and domestic palm oil follows the decline. The main contract of palm oil may test the support of 8,900 yuan [3]. - Sugar: Overseas supply is relatively loose, and the overall trend is bearish. It oscillates at the bottom around 5,400 [3]. - Cotton: The cost of new cotton is gradually solidified. It oscillates in the range of 13,200 - 13,600 [3]. - Egg: The overall trend is still bearish. Pay attention to the inter - month reverse arbitrage opportunity and short - term short - selling opportunity [3]. - Apple: The apple trading in the eastern region is active, and the price of high - quality goods has increased significantly. The main contract may break through and stand firm at 9,300 points [3]. - Juice: The market sentiment has eased, and the market is oscillating. Pay attention to the support of 10,000 - 10,300 [3]. - Soda Ash: The market is running strongly driven by large - scale production cuts of enterprises and the glass market. Wait and see for now and wait for the opportunity to go short on rebounds [3]. Special Commodity Sector - Glass: The production and sales have improved, and the market has stabilized and rebounded. Pay attention to the spot market to capture short - term long - buying opportunities [3]. - Rubber: The raw material price continues to rebound, and the rubber price continues to rise. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - Industrial Silicon: Industrial silicon oscillates and declines. The price oscillates in the range of 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton [3]. New Energy Sector - Polysilicon: Polysilicon oscillates and declines. The price oscillates at a high level [3]. - Lithium Carbonate: The market maintains a relatively strong trend with a gap - up and low - close on the day. The fundamental improvement is continuously realized. The main contract reference range is 80,000 - 84,000 [3].