建信期货原油日报-20251029

Report Overview - Report Type: Crude Oil Daily Report - Date: October 29, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Trump canceled his meeting with Putin and decided to strengthen sanctions against Russia due to the perceived lack of Russia's sincerity in ceasing the war. The U.S. Treasury and the EU subsequently imposed sanctions on two major Russian oil companies. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of these sanctions. Without further support, oil prices may decline again under the pressure of oversupply. In the short - term, investors can consider a strategy of going long on domestic oil and short on foreign oil, and maintain a bearish outlook in the medium - term [6] Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Quotes: WTI's opening price was $61.82, closing at $61.55, with a high of $62.17, a low of $60.67, a daily increase of 0.08%, and a trading volume of 25.31 million lots. Brent's opening price was $65.35, closing at $65.04, with a high of $65.89, a low of $64.32, a daily decrease of 0.25%, and a trading volume of 42.45 million lots. SC's opening price was 467.7 yuan/barrel, closing at 462.7 yuan/barrel, with a high of 469.3 yuan/barrel, a low of 462.5 yuan/barrel, a daily decrease of 1.22%, and a trading volume of 10.19 million lots [6] - Operation Suggestions: Short - term: Consider a strategy of going long on domestic oil and short on foreign oil; Medium - term: Maintain a bearish outlook [6] 2. Industry News - Price Forecast: Morgan Stanley predicts that the Brent crude oil price will be $57.5 per barrel in the first half of 2026 and $60 per barrel in the second half [7] - Inventory Situation: Currently, about 1.4 billion barrels of crude oil are being shipped on tankers, the highest level since records began in 2016 [7] - Production Data: Mexico's state - owned oil company's crude oil and condensate production in the third quarter was 1.65 million barrels per day, a year - on - year decrease of 6.6% [7] - Geopolitical News: Ukraine will expand its attacks on Russian refineries; OPEC+ producers tend to implement a small - scale production increase again in December; Indian state - owned refineries are considering the feasibility of relying on small - scale crude oil suppliers to continue importing discounted Russian crude oil [7] 3. Data Overview - Data Sources: EIA, Wind, Bloomberg, and the research and development department of Jianxin Futures are the data sources for various figures, including global high - frequency crude oil inventory, EIA crude oil inventory, U.S. crude oil production growth rate, and consumption data of U.S. gasoline and diesel [9][13][14][16][20][21][22] - Figures Included: The report includes figures such as global high - frequency crude oil inventory, EIA crude oil inventory, U.S. crude oil production growth rate, WTI and Brent spot prices, and U.S. gasoline and diesel consumption [10][11][14][21]