合成橡胶产业日报-20251029

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term production and capacity utilization of domestic butadiene rubber may decline due to increased maintenance of domestic butadiene rubber units, but considering the weak raw material side, it is expected that production enterprise inventories will decrease and trading enterprise inventories will increase [2] - The overall capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises has increased slightly, with semi - steel tire enterprises maintaining stable production and full - steel tire enterprises keeping production stable. The BR2512 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 10,500 - 11,000 yuan/ton in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 10,795 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton; the position volume of the main contract is 52,216, an increase of 3,565; the 12 - 1 spread of synthetic rubber is 25 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton; the total number of warehouse receipts for butadiene rubber is 3,010 tons, unchanged [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical, Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong and Shanghai is 10,950 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of BR9000 from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong is 11,150 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton; the basis of synthetic rubber is 195 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The current - week production capacity of butadiene is 155,300 tons/week, a decrease of 100 tons/week; the capacity utilization rate is 65.62%, a decrease of 0.17 percentage points; the port inventory is 24,600 tons, a decrease of 6,200 tons; the production capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber is 73.45%, a decrease of 1.37 percentage points [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The production of full - steel tires in the current month is 1.314 million pieces, an increase of 110,000 pieces; the production of semi - steel tires is 6.025 million pieces, an increase of 219,000 pieces; the inventory days of full - steel tires in Shandong is 40.34 days, an increase of 0.39 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong is 45.26 days, an increase of 0.09 days [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of October 23, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.84%, a month - on - month increase of 1.77 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.84 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.87%, a month - on - month increase of 1.91 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.95 percentage points [2] - In September 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 105,000 vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 15% and a year - on - year increase of about 82%. From January to September, the cumulative sales exceeded 800,000 vehicles, reaching 821,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 20% [2] - As of October 22, the domestic butadiene rubber inventory was 33,200 tons, an increase of 400 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 1.25% [2]