瑞达期货锰硅硅铁产业日报-20251029

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On October 29, the SM2601 contract was reported at 5,852, up 1.00%. The spot price of Inner Mongolia silicon - manganese was reported at 5,600, up 20 yuan/ton. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates again at the October 28 - 29 meeting. Fundamentally, inventory is rising rapidly, production is slightly falling from a high level, and inventory has risen for 4 consecutive weeks. The port inventory of imported manganese ore has increased by 63,000 tons, and the demand for hot metal is oscillating at a high level. The spot profit in Inner Mongolia is - 115 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia is - 230 yuan/ton. The mainstream steel procurement price in October is 5,820 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan/ton month - on - month. Technically, the daily K - line is below the 20 and 60 - day moving averages. It should be treated as an oscillating operation [2]. - On October 29, the SF2601 contract was reported at 5,594, up 0.68%. The spot price of Ningxia ferrosilicon was reported at 5,260. The 14th Five - Year Plan proposes to remove obstacles to the construction of a unified national market. In terms of supply and demand, manufacturers' production is mostly normal, delivering previous orders, with a neutral inventory level. The semi - coke price is stable, providing short - term cost support. The spot profit in Inner Mongolia is - 460 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia is - 410 yuan/ton. Technically, the daily K - line is between the 20 and 60 - day moving averages. It should be treated as an oscillating operation [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - SM主力合约收盘价: 5,852.00 yuan/ton, up 62.00 yuan; SF主力合约收盘价: 5,594.00 yuan/ton, up 30.00 yuan [2]. - SM期货合约持仓量: 519,582.00 hands, down 9,222.00 hands; SF期货合约持仓量: 331,706.00 hands, down 8,921.00 hands [2]. - 锰硅前20名净持仓: - 67,334.00 hands, down 8,729.00 hands; 硅铁前20名净持仓: - 32,728.00 hands, down 3,589.00 hands [2]. - SM5 - 1月合约价差: 38.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; SF5 - 1月合约价差: 88.00 yuan/ton, up 10.00 yuan [2]. - SM仓单: 0.00, down 38,603.00; SF仓单: 0.00, down 8,675.00 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Inner Mongolia manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18: 5,580.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Inner Mongolia ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B: 5,300.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Guizhou manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18: 5,600.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Qinghai ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B: 5,160.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Yunnan manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18: 5,600.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Ningxia ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B: 5,260.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Manganese - silicon index average: 5,641.00 yuan/ton, up 1.00 yuan; SF主力合约基差: - 334.00 yuan/ton, down 30.00 yuan [2]. - SM主力合约基差: - 272.00 yuan/ton, down 62.00 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - South African ore: Mn38 block, Tianjin Port: 24.00 yuan/ton - degree, unchanged; Silica (98%, Northwest): 210.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Inner Mongolia Wuhai secondary metallurgical coke: 1,200.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Semi - coke (medium material, Shenmu): 810.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Manganese ore port inventory: 4.364 million tons, down 93,000 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Manganese - silicon enterprise operating rate: 43.04%, down 0.24%; Ferrosilicon enterprise operating rate: 35.56%, up 0.08% [2]. - Manganese - silicon supply: 207,410.00 tons, down 1,400.00 tons; Ferrosilicon supply: 114,100.00 tons, up 1,300.00 tons [2]. - Manganese - silicon manufacturer inventory: 293,000.00 tons, up 30,500.00 tons; Ferrosilicon manufacturer inventory: 66,560.00 tons, down 2,520.00 tons [2]. - Manganese - silicon national steel mill inventory (in days): 15.93, up 0.95; Ferrosilicon national steel mill inventory (in days): 15.52, up 0.85 [2]. - Five major steel types' manganese - silicon demand: 122,683.00 tons, up 1,570.00 tons; Five major steel types' ferrosilicon demand: 19,935.90 tons, up 363.38 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - 247 steel mills' blast furnace operating rate: 84.73%, up 0.48%; 247 steel mills' blast furnace capacity utilization rate: 89.92%, down 0.39% [2]. - Crude steel production: 7.34901 million tons, down 387,840 tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - The 14th Five - Year Plan proposes to promote the modernization of governance in megacities, accelerate the integration of urban agglomerations and the synchronization of metropolitan areas, optimize the urban scale structure, and promote the coordinated development of large, medium, small cities and small towns [2]. - It also proposes to remove obstacles to the construction of a unified national market, comprehensively rectify "involution - style" competition, maintain reasonable investment growth, increase the proportion of government investment in people's livelihood, and establish a unified urban - rural construction land market, a well - functioning capital market, a smooth - flowing labor market, and an efficient technology transformation market [2]. - Mongolia's internal political struggle has no impact on coal imports from Mongolia. The number of customs - cleared vehicles at the three major ports has returned to a high level this week [2]. - According to the China Iron and Steel Association, the floating value of coking coal long - term contract linkage between steel and coal in October 2025 increased by 43 yuan/ton compared with September 2025, a 3.1% increase [2].