瑞达期货沪锡产业日报-20251029

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report suggests a bullish approach in trading. Macro - level factors include the "15th Five - Year Plan" aiming for key technological breakthroughs, implementation of the "AI +" initiative, and efforts to boost consumption. The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy. The "small non - farm" data shows changes in the US labor market [3]. - Fundamentally, the closure of illegal tin mines in Indonesia may tighten supply. Tin ore imports in September decreased month - on - month, and production in Myanmar is slowly recovering. African and Australian production may be affected by the rainy season. On the smelting side, raw material shortages are severe in Yunnan, and the scrap recycling system in Jiangxi is under pressure with low operating rates. On the demand side, most downstream and end - user enterprises are waiting and only making small purchases, with low restocking enthusiasm [3]. - Technically, the reduction in positions and price decline indicate a weakening bullish sentiment, and attention should be paid to the resistance at the 290,000 yuan level [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for Shanghai tin is 286,720 yuan/ton, up 3,550 yuan; the closing price of the November - December contract is down 160 yuan. The LME 3 - month tin price is 36,325 US dollars/ton, up 235 US dollars. The main contract position of Shanghai tin is 41,157 lots, up 721 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures is - 1,558 lots, up 282 lots. LME tin total inventory is 2,700 tons, down 25 tons; LME tin cancelled warrants are 215 tons, down 25 tons. Shanghai Futures Exchange tin inventory is 5,766 tons, up 75 tons; Shanghai Futures Exchange tin warehouse receipts are 5,682 tons, up 73 tons [3]. 现货 Market - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 285,200 yuan/ton, up 900 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous Metals Market 1 tin spot price is 285,410 yuan/ton, up 830 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai tin main contract is not clearly given. The LME tin price premium (0 - 3) is - 0.16 US dollars/ton, and the average price of 40% tin concentrate is 269,900 yuan/ton, down 600 yuan [3]. Upstream Situation - The average processing fee for 40% tin concentrate is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 60% tin concentrate is 273,900 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan; the average processing fee for 60% tin concentrate is 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons; the monthly import volume of refined tin is 1,501.64 tons, up 63.06 tons [3]. Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bars in Gejiu is 184,850 yuan/ton, up 1,050 yuan. The cumulative monthly output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 110930 tons, up 144,800 tons; the monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 197,600 tons, up 31,000 tons [3]. Industry News - The "15th Five - Year Plan" proposes to develop strategic emerging industries and achieve key technological breakthroughs in key areas, implement the "AI +" initiative, and boost consumption. The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy. ADP will launch weekly employment data, and the first report shows an average increase of 14,250 private - sector jobs in the US in the four weeks up to October 11 [3].