瑞达期货铝类产业日报-20251029

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The alumina fundamentals may be in a stage of reduced supply and slightly boosted demand, and the alumina price may be supported. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - long trading at low prices, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - The fundamentals of Shanghai aluminum may be in a stage of slight supply increase and strong consumption, with industrial inventory depletion and positive expectations. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - The fundamentals of cast aluminum may be in a stage of tight supply - demand balance, with inventory depletion and positive expectations. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 21,295 yuan/ton, up 155 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract was 2,879 yuan/ton, up 62 yuan [2]. - The LME electrolytic aluminum three - month quotation was 2,894 US dollars/ton, up 15.5 US dollars; the LME aluminum inventory was 465,650 tons, down 3,625 tons [2]. - The closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract was 20,690 yuan/ton, up 115 yuan; the registered warehouse receipts of the cast aluminum alloy on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 50,636 tons, up 1,800 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum was 21,170 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the spot price of alumina in Shanghai Non - ferrous was 2,790 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The basis of cast aluminum alloy was 510 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum was - 125 yuan/ton, down 145 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The alumina production was 799.90 million tons, up 7.42 million tons; the demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) was 704.31 million tons, down 21.49 million tons [2]. - The import volume of alumina was 6.00 million tons, down 3.44 million tons; the export volume of alumina was 25.00 million tons, up 7.00 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 57.60 million tons, up 0.80 million tons; the total electrolytic aluminum production capacity was 4,523.20 million tons, unchanged [2]. - The primary aluminum import volume was 246,797.10 tons, up 31,034.96 tons; the primary aluminum export volume was 28,969.92 tons, up 3,365.58 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The aluminum product production was 590.00 million tons; the aluminum alloy production was 177.60 million tons [2]. - The automobile production was 322.65 million vehicles, up 47.42 million vehicles [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum was 9.61%, up 0.14%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum was 8.25%, up 0.14% [2]. - The implied volatility of the at - the - money IV of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 10.61%, down 0.0235; the call - put ratio of Shanghai aluminum options was 1.33, down 0.0509 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - The "15th Five - Year Plan" suggestions were released, aiming to develop strategic emerging industries and promote key core technology breakthroughs in key fields [2]. - The central bank governor said that the moderately loose monetary policy would be implemented in detail, and new policy measures would be studied and reserved [2]. - The U.S. Senate failed to pass the procedural vote on the bill to end the government shutdown [2]. - ADP will launch weekly employment data, and the average number of private - sector jobs in the U.S. increased by 14,250 in the four weeks ending October 11 [2].