Report Overview - Report Date: October 29, 2025 [1] - Report Type: Natural Rubber Industry Daily Report 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The global natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. In Yunnan, due to large temperature differences between day and night, the dry rubber content drops rapidly, and raw material prices are rising. In Hainan, continuous rainfall restricts tapping operations, and raw material production is slow. Some processing plants are eager to purchase raw materials at higher prices [2]. - The total inventory at Qingdao Port is decreasing, with both bonded and general trade warehouses showing inventory reduction. The reduction in the general trade warehouse has narrowed. Overseas standard rubber arrivals continue to decline, and the bonded warehouse in Qingdao shows a slight inventory reduction. The increase in the arrival and storage of mixed rubber is in line with expectations, but tire factories' purchases are mostly on a wait - and - see basis [2]. - Last week, the production schedules of domestic tire enterprises mostly returned to normal levels, driving a slight increase in overall capacity utilization. Semi - steel tire enterprises are expected to maintain high production enthusiasm, and all - steel tire enterprises' production schedules are expected to remain stable. The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 15300 - 15700 in the short term, and the nr2512 contract is expected to fluctuate between 12500 - 12800 [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 15625 yuan/ton, up 265 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 12720 yuan/ton, up 190 yuan. The 1 - 5 spread of Shanghai rubber is - 80 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the 12 - 1 spread of 20 - number rubber is - 10 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan [2]. - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 2905 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan. The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 146189 lots, up 2108 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 40039 lots, down 6433 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 23073 lots, up 3872 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 8299 lots, up 2453 lots. The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber are 122890 tons, up 320 tons; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber are 44253 tons, down 201 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 14750 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 15200 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [2]. - The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1880 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1880 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 14980 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14950 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's butadiene styrene 1502 is 11400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 11000 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan [2]. - The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 610 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the non - standard product basis of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 380 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 13219 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 689 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) is 60.06 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (sheet) is 56.15 Thai baht/kg, up 1.26 Thai baht [2]. - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) is 55 Thai baht/kg, up 0.5 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup lump) is 53.35 Thai baht/kg, up 0.2 Thai baht [2]. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 182.4 US dollars/ton, down 38.6 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 51 US dollars/ton, down 0.6 US dollars [2]. - The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber is 12.26 million tons, up 0.95 million tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 31.75 million tons, up 4.91 million tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly opening rate of all - steel tires is 65.58%, up 1.06 percentage points; the weekly opening rate of semi - steel tires is 73.67%, up 0.95 percentage points [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 40.34 days, up 0.39 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 45.26 days, up 0.09 days [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.14 million pieces, up 0.11 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 60.25 million pieces, up 2.19 million pieces [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 19.48%, down 0.11 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 17.48%, down 0.61 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 21.85%, up 0.41 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 21.84%, up 0.39 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Industry News - In the first week of November 2025, rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia increased compared with the previous period. In the northern hemisphere, heavy rainfall in Vietnam and southern Thailand affected tapping; in the southern hemisphere, rainfall in southern Indonesia and eastern Malaysia had a slightly reduced impact on tapping [2]. - In September 2025, the El Niño index (ONI) was - 0.38, a month - on - month decrease of 0.19, indicating a weakening of the El Niño phenomenon [2]. - As of October 26, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 432,200 tons, a decrease of 5,300 tons from the previous period, a decrease of 1.20%. The bonded area inventory was 68,700 tons, a decrease of 1.29%; the general trade inventory was 363,500 tons, a decrease of 1.18% [2]. - As of October 23, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.84%, a month - on - month increase of 1.77 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.84 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.87%, a month - on - month increase of 1.91 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.95 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Suggestions for Attention - Pay attention to the opening rate data of Longzhong tire sample enterprises on Thursday [2].
瑞达期货天然橡胶产业日报-20251029
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-10-29 09:30