Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai copper main contract fluctuates strongly, with increasing positions, spot discount, and weakening basis. Fundamentally, the tight supply of copper concentrate has not improved, TC fees hover in the negative range, and the impact of overseas mine disturbances persists, keeping ore prices firm. [2] - On the supply side, due to many maintenance operations and the tight supply of copper ore and blister copper, smelting capacity may be restricted. Additionally, the price of sulfuric acid, a by - product of smelting, shows signs of decline, affecting smelting profits and potentially leading to a decline in the operating rate. Domestic refined copper supply is gradually shrinking. [2] - On the demand side, copper prices remain high due to cost support and overseas macro - sentiment. Downstream buyers are hesitant due to high prices, adopting a cautious wait - and - see procurement strategy. The spot market trading sentiment is weak, and high copper prices suppress downstream demand. [2] - Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a situation of weak supply and demand, with industrial inventory accumulation. In the options market, the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.32, down 0.0498 from the previous period, indicating a bullish sentiment in the options market with a slight decline in implied volatility. Technically, on the 60 - minute MACD, both lines are above the 0 - axis, and the red bars are expanding. The operation suggestion is to trade with a light position in a volatile market, controlling the rhythm and trading risks. [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures main contract is 88,710 yuan/ton, up 1,730 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price is 11,097 dollars/ton, up 58.5 dollars. The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract is 10 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The position of the main contract of Shanghai copper is 290,209 lots, up 8,903 lots. [2] - The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is - 29,079 lots, up 1,010 lots. The LME copper inventory is 134,575 tons, down 1,400 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of cathode copper is 104,792 tons, down 5,448 tons; the LME copper cancelled warrants are 11,175 tons, up 1,200 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts of cathode copper are 35,745 tons, down 2,856 tons. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 87,765 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price is 87,770 yuan/ton, down 405 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 52 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 34.5 dollars/ton, unchanged. [2] - The basis of the CU main contract is - 945 yuan/ton, down 1,870 yuan; the LME copper spread (0 - 3) is - 19.54 dollars/ton, up 4.3 dollars. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 258.69 million tons, down 17.2 million tons. The TC fee of domestic copper smelters is - 42.7 dollars/kiloton, down 1.73 dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 78,020 yuan/metal ton, down 420 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan is 78,720 yuan/metal ton, down 420 yuan. [2] - The processing fee of blister copper in the South is 900 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the processing fee of blister copper in the North is 700 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined copper is 1.266 billion tons, down 350 million tons; the import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 490,000 tons, up 60,000 tons. The social inventory of copper is 418.2 million tons, up 4.3 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 60,440 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 74,000 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. [2] - The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 730 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan. [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The monthly output of copper products is 223.2 billion tons, up 1 billion tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 437.8 billion yuan, up 58.224 billion yuan; the cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 6,770.571 billion yuan, up 739.652 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,371,236,100 pieces, up 120,949,000 pieces. [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 24.24%, up 0.46%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 18.28%, up 0.39%. The implied volatility of the at - the - money option in the current month is 19.98%, down 0.0397; the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.32, down 0.0498. [2] 3.7 Industry News - The full text of the "15th Five - Year Plan" proposal is released, aiming to maintain economic growth within a reasonable range, improve total factor productivity, and significantly increase the household consumption rate. It also promotes the development of strategic emerging industries and technological breakthroughs in key areas, implements the "Artificial Intelligence +" action, boosts consumption, and improves the capital market system. [2] - The central bank governor said that the moderately loose monetary policy will be implemented in detail, existing policies will be carried out, and new policies will be studied and reserved. [2] - The U.S. Senate failed to pass the procedural vote on the "2025 Fiscal Year Continuing Appropriations and Extension Act" for the 13th time, and the government shutdown will continue. [2] - The ADP will launch weekly employment data. The first report shows that the average number of private - sector jobs in the U.S. increased by 14,250 in the four weeks ending October 11. [2]
沪铜产业日报-20251029
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-10-29 09:30