油脂油料产业日报-20251029

Report Information - Report Title: "Oils and Fats and Oilseeds Industry Daily Report" [1] - Report Date: October 29, 2025 [1] - Author: Xu Liang [2] - Reviewer: Tang Yun [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views Oils Palm Oil - International Market: Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures have been on a continuous downward trend. Due to concerns about increased production and slower exports, the futures price has broken below the annual - line support of 4,350 ringgit. There is still pressure for an inertial decline, and it may fall further under the potential negative impact of rising month - end inventories. It is expected to test the support around 4,200 ringgit. After the release of the MPOB supply - demand report next month and with the support of the production slowdown season starting in November, Malaysian palm oil may gradually stop falling, stabilize, and rebound [3]. - Domestic Market: Dalian palm oil futures have been dragged down by the Malaysian palm oil trend and have fallen significantly. After breaking below the annual - line support, there is pressure for further weakness. It may stop falling or stage a short - term oversold rebound around 8,800 yuan; otherwise, it may fall to 8,600 yuan. Given the increasing port inventories, the decline of Malaysian palm oil, and weakening demand due to lower temperatures, a short - term bearish view is maintained. Attention should be paid to whether it can follow the Malaysian palm oil trend and stop falling and stabilize in the first and middle of next month [3]. Soybean Oil - Currently, the domestic soybean oil supply is sufficient while demand is weak, presenting a bearish fundamental situation. CBOT soybean oil and BMD palm oil may continue to fall, dragging down Dalian soybean oil. The market is closely watching the Sino - US trade negotiations. If the negotiation results lead to a breakthrough rise in CBOT soybeans, Dalian soybean oil may quickly rebound; otherwise, if CBOT soybeans fall again, the January contract of Dalian soybean oil may break below the integer - level support [3]. Oilseeds Soybean Meal - News of COFCO's purchase of 180,000 tons of US soybeans this week has led to a mixed sentiment among the long and short sides. The market is trading cautiously, waiting for the final result and specific details of the Sino - US trade agreement. The short - term main contract of Dalian soybean meal may consolidate in the range of 2,950 - 2,980 yuan. In the spot market, most of the oil mills' fixed - price offers remain stable, with some decreasing by 10 yuan/ton, and the near - month basis remains stable. The pattern of weak oils and strong meals continues, and the improvement of oil mills' crushing profits is limited. The small - scale arrival of Argentine soybean meal has little impact on the market. The rebound of pig prices has stimulated some breeding enterprises to enter the secondary fattening market. Feed mills are generally waiting due to safety inventories, and traders have limited motivation to chase the rising prices due to a small number of low - price contracts. Both are waiting for the clarity of the Sino - US negotiations [14]. Data Summary Oils Oils' Inter - monthly and Inter - variety Spreads - P 1 - 5: - 22 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan; Y - P 01: - 776 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan; etc. [4] Palm Oil Spot and Futures Daily Prices - Palm oil 01: 8,842 yuan/ton, down 1.29%; BMD palm oil main contract: 4,245 ringgit/ton, down 1.67%; etc. [5] Soybean Oil Spot and Futures Daily Prices - Soybean oil 01: 8,132 yuan/ton, down 0.2%; CBOT soybean oil main contract: 50.16 cents/pound, down 1.01%; etc. [11] Oilseeds Oilseeds Futures Prices - Soybean meal 01: 2,969 yuan, down 6 yuan, down 0.2%; CBOT yellow soybeans: 1,093.5, unchanged; etc. [15] Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Spreads - M01 - 05: 180 yuan, up 39 yuan; RM01 - 05: 58 yuan, up 46 yuan; etc. [16]