市场环境因子跟踪周报（2025.10.29）：海外风险缓和，风格切换概率提升-20251029

• The report tracks various market environment factors, including stock market factors, commodity market factors, options market factors, and convertible bond market factors [1][7][11] - Stock Market Factors: - Market Style: The style of large-cap and small-cap stocks was balanced, while the value-growth style leaned towards growth [11][13] - Market Style Volatility: Both large-cap/small-cap and value-growth style volatilities increased [11][13] - Market Structure: Industry excess return dispersion increased, industry rotation speed decreased, and the proportion of rising constituent stocks increased [11][13] - Trading Concentration: The transaction amount of the top 100 stocks slightly decreased, while the transaction amount of the top 5 industries remained unchanged compared to the previous period [11][13] - Market Activity: Market volatility increased, and market turnover rate decreased [12][13] - Commodity Market Factors: - Trend Strength: Precious metals and agricultural products showed a decline in trend strength, while other sectors experienced an increase [26][32] - Basis Momentum: Basis momentum increased across all sectors [26][32] - Volatility: Volatility rose in all sectors except for the black sector [26][32] - Liquidity: Liquidity decreased in precious metals, non-ferrous metals, and agricultural products [26][32] - Options Market Factors: - Implied Volatility: Implied volatility for the SSE 50 and CSI 1000 indices decreased, reflecting a moderation in market expectations regarding Trump's tariff policies [35] - Implied Discount Rate: The implied discount rate for CSI 1000 narrowed, but the market did not turn fully optimistic [35] - Option Holdings: Both put and call option holdings increased, indicating persistent market uncertainty [35] - Convertible Bond Market Factors: - Market Recovery: The convertible bond market showed slight recovery last week [37] - Valuation: Pure bond premium rates remained stable, while the premium rate for 100-yuan convertible bonds steadily increased [37] - Low Premium Convertible Bonds: The proportion of low premium convertible bonds decreased significantly [37] - Market Turnover: Market transaction volume stabilized without further contraction [37]