白糖早报-20251030

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the main contract 01 of Zhengzhou sugar futures rebounds, while in the long - term, the divergence between domestic and foreign sugar price trends is unsustainable. There is an increased probability of short - sellers re - entering the market when the price is above 5500 [5]. - Domestic consumption is good, inventory is decreasing, and the tariff on syrup has increased. The change of the US cola formula to use sucrose is also beneficial. However, global sugar production is increasing, and there is an expected surplus in the new season. The foreign sugar price has fallen below 15 cents per pound, opening the import profit window and increasing import pressure [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review No information provided. 3.2 Daily Tips - Fundamentals: Czarnikow raised the expected global sugar surplus for the 25/26 season to 7.4 million tons, 1.2 million tons higher than the August estimate. StoneX predicted a 2.77 - million - ton surplus, while ISO estimated a supply gap of 231,000 tons, a significant reduction from the previous forecast. As of the end of August 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China was 11.1621 million tons, cumulative sales were 10 million tons, and the sales rate was 89.6%. In September 2025, China imported 550,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 150,000 tons, and the total import of syrup and premixes was 151,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 135,100 tons. Overall, the fundamentals are bearish [4]. - Basis: The spot price in Liuzhou is 5780, and the basis for the 01 contract is 286, indicating a premium over the futures price, which is bullish [4]. - Inventory: As of the end of August in the 24/25 season, the industrial inventory was 1.16 million tons, considered neutral [4]. - Market Trend: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [4]. - Main Position: The net short position is increasing, and the main trend is bearish [5]. 3.3 Today's Focus No information provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Supply and Demand Forecasts: Different institutions have varying forecasts for the 25/26 season. ISO expects a supply gap of 200,000 tons (nearly balanced), StoneX predicts a 2.77 - million - ton surplus, Czarnikow forecasts a 7.4 - million - ton surplus, Datagro expects a 1.53 - million - ton surplus, Covrig Analytics predicts a 4.2 - million - ton surplus, Alvean/Louis Dreyfus expects a 400,000 - ton surplus, and Green Pool expects a 1.15 - million - ton surplus [36]. - China's Sugar Supply and Demand Balance Sheet: From 2024/25 to 2025/26, the sugarcane and beet planting and harvesting areas, yields, and sugar production are relatively stable. Import volume is expected to be 5 million tons, consumption is 15.9 million tons, and the balance change is 120,000 tons. The international sugar price is expected to be in the range of 16.5 - 21.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be between 5800 - 6500 yuan per ton [38]. 3.5 Position Data No detailed information provided on position data other than the main position being bearish.