大越期货螺卷早报-20251030

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - For螺纹, with weak demand, low - rising inventory, and a continued downward cycle in the downstream real - estate industry, it should be treated with a bearish - trending - with - fluctuations mindset. The main factors are weak real - estate demand, and the plan of domestic production capacity reduction [2]. - For热卷, due to weakening supply and demand, continued inventory reduction, export difficulties, and the plan of domestic production capacity reduction, it should also be treated with a bearish - trending - with - fluctuations mindset [7]. Group 3: Summary by Related Content 1. Fundamental Analysis - 螺纹: Demand is poor, inventory is rising from a low level, and traders' purchasing willingness is weak. The downstream real - estate industry is in a downward cycle [2]. - 热卷: Both supply and demand are weakening, inventory is decreasing, and exports are blocked, but domestic policies may play a role [7]. 2. Basis Analysis - 螺纹: The spot price is 3240, and the basis is 107, which is bullish [2]. - 热卷: The spot price is 3350, and the basis is 5, which is neutral [7]. 3. Inventory Analysis - 螺纹: The inventory in 35 major cities across the country is 437.48 million tons, decreasing month - on - month and increasing year - on - year, which is neutral [2]. - 热卷: The inventory in 33 major cities across the country is 337.57 million tons, decreasing month - on - month and increasing year - on - year, which is bearish [7]. 4. Disk Analysis - 螺纹: The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward, which is neutral [2]. - 热卷: The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is flat, which is bullish [7]. 5. Main Position Analysis - 螺纹: The net position of the main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [2]. - 热卷: The net position of the main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [7]. 6. Factors Analysis - 螺纹 - Bullish factors: Low production, spot premium, and domestic production capacity reduction expectation [4]. - Bearish factors: The downward cycle of the downstream real - estate industry continues, and terminal demand is weaker than the same period [4]. - 热卷 - Bullish factors: Fair demand, spot premium, and domestic production capacity reduction expectation [8]. - Bearish factors: Downstream demand enters the seasonal off - season, and the expectation is pessimistic [9].