PTA、MEG早报-20251030

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For PTA, the spot basis has strengthened slightly due to the boost in downstream polyester sales this week. The market transaction focus has gradually shifted to November. In terms of absolute prices, it is expected to fluctuate following the cost side in the short term. Attention should be paid to device changes [5]. - For MEG, the arrival of foreign vessels is concentrated this week, and port inventories are expected to increase significantly. The overall inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter is around 400,000 tons, and domestic supply will be abundant in the later period. After the delivery cycle ends, spot buying in the trading sector will also weaken. It is expected that the price center of MEG will be adjusted within a range in the short term, with continuous upward pressure [8]. - Short - term commodity markets are greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and resistance levels above need to be monitored when the market rebounds [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1前日回顾 No relevant content provided. 3.2每日提示 PTA - Fundamentals: PTA futures fluctuated and closed higher yesterday. The spot market negotiation atmosphere was fair, and the spot basis strengthened. Traders were the main participants in the negotiation. Some mainstream suppliers sold goods. There were transactions at a discount of around 80 to the 01 contract this week, 72 - 77 next week, 70 in mid - November, 65 - 68 in late November, 50 in late December, and 56 for this week's warehouse receipts. Today's mainstream spot basis is at a discount of 76 to the 01 contract [5]. - Basis: The spot price is 4535, and the basis of the 01 contract is - 101, with the futures price higher than the spot price, showing a neutral situation [6]. - Inventory: PTA factory inventory is 4.07 days, a decrease of 0.01 days compared to the previous period, which is a positive factor [6]. - Market trend: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, which is a positive factor [6]. - Main positions: The net short position is decreasing, showing a slightly bearish situation [6]. MEG - Fundamentals: On Wednesday, the price center of ethylene glycol fluctuated and adjusted. The spot basis strengthened in the afternoon. The night - session opened lower and then rose, with light negotiation in the market. In the morning, the market was mainly in a weak correction. Spot negotiation and transactions were around a premium of 66 - 72 yuan/ton to the 01 contract. In the afternoon, the buying of recent goods was active, and the spot basis strengthened to around a premium of 80 yuan/ton to the 01 contract, with fair trading in the market. In the US dollar market, the center of the external market of ethylene glycol adjusted slightly. Near noon, recent shipments fell to around 488 - 490 US dollars/ton, and some traders participated in inquiries at low prices. In the afternoon, the market rebounded, and recent shipments were negotiated at around 492 - 493 US dollars/ton, with slightly stalemated negotiation [8]. - Basis: The spot price is 4158, and the basis of the 01 contract is 58, with the spot price higher than the futures price, showing a neutral situation [9]. - Inventory: The total inventory in the East China region is 481,000 tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons compared to the previous period, which is a positive factor [9]. - Market trend: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is a negative factor [9]. - Main positions: The main net short position is increasing, showing a bearish situation [8]. 3.3今日关注 - Positive factors: A new 3 - million - ton PTA plant in East China was put into production last weekend and has started to produce products [10]. - Negative factors: The 3.6 - million - ton capacity of Yisheng New Materials has reached full load, and the capacities of Sanfangxiang's 3.2 - million - ton and Weilian Chemical's 2.5 - million - ton plants have increased [11]. 3.4基本面数据 PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the PTA supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to December 2025, including data on PTA capacity, load, output, imports, total supply, polyester production, consumption, exports, total demand, and inventory changes [13]. Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the ethylene glycol supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to December 2025, including data on EG production, imports, total supply, polyester production, consumption, exports, total demand, port inventory, and inventory changes [14]. 3.5 Other Data The report also includes data on bottle - chip prices, production margins, capacity utilization, inventory, PTA and MEG basis, inter - month spreads, spot spreads, inventory of related products in the polyester industry chain, upstream and downstream operating rates, and profit margins from 2020 to 2025 [16 - 64].