Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of edible oils are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic edible oil supply is stable. Sino-US relations are tense, which puts pressure on the prices of new US soybeans due to export setbacks. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic edible oil fundamentals are neutral, and the import inventory is stable [2][3][4] - The current main logic revolves around the relatively loose global edible oil fundamentals. The main bullish factor is that the US soybean stock-to-use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. The main bearish factors include the historically high prices of edible oils, continuous inventory accumulation of domestic edible oils, weak macroeconomics, and high expected production of related edible oils [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - Soybean Oil - Fundamentals: The MPOB report shows that in August, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, with less-than-expected production cuts. Currently, shipping survey agencies show that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month-on-month. Subsequent entry into the production reduction season will reduce the supply pressure of palm oil [2] - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,322, with a basis of 190, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [2] - Inventory: On September 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 11.7% higher year-on-year [2] - Market: The futures price is running below the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is downward [2] - Main Position: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have increased [2] - Expectation: The soybean oil contract Y2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7,900 - 8,300 [2] Daily View - Palm Oil - Fundamentals: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral with less-than-expected production cuts. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil has increased by 4% month-on-month. Subsequent entry into the production increase season will increase the supply of palm oil [3] - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 8,870, with a basis of 28, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price [3] - Inventory: On September 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, up 10,000 tons from the previous period and 34.1% lower year-on-year [3] - Market: The futures price is running below the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is downward [3] - Main Position: The long positions of the main palm oil contract have increased [3] - Expectation: The palm oil contract P2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,600 - 9,000 [3] Daily View - Rapeseed Oil - Fundamentals: The same MPOB report situation as above. Subsequent entry into the production increase season will increase the supply of palm oil [4] - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9,905, with a basis of 380, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [4] - Inventory: On September 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, up 10,000 tons from the previous period and 3.2% higher year-on-year [4] - Market: The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [4] - Main Position: The long positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have increased [4] - Expectation: The rapeseed oil contract OI2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,300 - 9,700 [4] Supply - Imported Soybean Inventory: Related to the supply of edible oils, but specific data and analysis are not detailed in the text [6] - Soybean Oil Inventory: The inventory situation on September 22 is mentioned in the daily view of soybean oil [2] - Soybean Meal Inventory: There are graphs showing the inventory from 2015 - 2025, but specific data analysis is not provided [9][10] - Oil Mill Soybean Crushing: There are graphs showing the situation from 2015 - 2025, but specific data analysis is not provided [11][12] - Palm Oil Inventory: The inventory situation on September 22 is mentioned in the daily view of palm oil [3] - Rapeseed Oil Inventory: The inventory situation on September 22 is mentioned in the daily view of rapeseed oil [4] - Rapeseed Inventory: There are graphs showing the inventory from 2015 - 2025, but specific data analysis is not provided [21][22] - Domestic Total Edible Oil Inventory: There are graphs showing the inventory from 2015 - 2019, but specific data analysis is not provided [23][24] Demand - Soybean Oil Apparent Consumption: There are graphs showing the consumption from 2015 - 2025, but specific data analysis is not provided [13][14] - Soybean Meal Apparent Consumption: There are graphs showing the consumption from 2015 - 2025, but specific data analysis is not provided [15][16]
大越期货油脂早报-20251030
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-10-30 01:28