大越期货天胶早报-20251030

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, the spot is strong, domestic inventories are decreasing, and the tire operating rate is at a high level. The market has support below, and it is advisable to buy on dips [4]. 3) Summary by Directory Daily Hints - The fundamentals of natural rubber are neutral, with supply increasing, spot prices strong, domestic inventories decreasing, and high tire operating rates [4]. - The basis is -875, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - Exchange inventories and Qingdao region inventories are both decreasing, presenting a neutral situation [4]. - The price is running above the 20 - day line while the 20 - day line is downward, showing a neutral state [4]. - The main positions are net short with a reduction in short positions, suggesting a bearish outlook [4]. Fundamental Data - Supply: Supply is increasing [4][6]. - Spot Price: The spot price of 2023 full - latex (non - deliverable) remained flat on October 29th. The basis weakened on October 29th [8][35]. - Inventory: Exchange inventories and Qingdao region inventories are both in a state of continuous destocking [14][17]. - Import: Import volume has rebounded [20]. - Downstream Consumption: Automobile production and sales are seasonally rising, tire production and tire industry exports have reached new highs for the same period [23][29][32]. Multi - Empty Factors - Likely to Rise: High downstream consumption, resistant spot prices, and domestic anti - involution [6]. - Likely to Fall: Increasing supply, bearish domestic economic indicators, and trade frictions [6].