铁矿石早报（2025-10-30）-20251030

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of iron ore show that steel mills' hot metal production has started to decline, the arrival level at ports this month has decreased, overall supply and demand are loose, port inventories have decreased, there will be policies to reduce crude steel production, and the trade war has eased, presenting a neutral situation [2]. - The basis indicates that the spot price of PB powder at Rizhao Port converted to the futures price is 845, with a basis of 41; the spot price of Brazilian mixed ore at Rizhao Port converted to the futures price is 864, with a basis of 60, showing that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish [2]. - Regarding inventories, port inventories are 15,109.49 tons, increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year, presenting a neutral situation [2]. - The market price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is flat, which is bullish [2]. - The net long position of the main iron ore contract is increasing, which is bullish [2]. - The expectation is that domestic demand will decline, and the plan to reduce production capacity will impact the market, suggesting a high - level consolidation strategy [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Bullish Factors - Hot metal production remains at a high level [6]. - Port inventories are decreasing [6]. - There are import losses [6]. - The price of downstream steel products is rising, and the ability to bear high - priced raw materials is strong [6]. Bearish Factors - Later shipping volumes will increase [6]. - Terminal demand remains weak [6]. Other Related Indicators - Iron ore port spot prices [8] - Iron ore futures - spot basis [13] - Iron ore import profit [16] - Iron ore shipping volume [19] - Iron ore port inventories and steel mill inventories [23] - Iron ore arrival and port clearance volume [28] - Iron ore daily consumption [31] - Steel enterprise production situation [33] - Iron ore daily port transactions and steel mills' daily hot metal production [36]