甲醇聚烯烃早报-20251030

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Methanol: The current situation remains poor. Iranian plant shutdowns are slower than expected, and high imports are likely in November. The 01 contract issue is difficult to resolve. Port sanctions are expected to be resolved before the end of gas restrictions, making inventory reduction difficult. Methanol has limited upside potential, with the downside space depending on the inland market. Recent coal price increases have no impact on profits [2]. - Polyethylene (PE): Overall inventory is neutral. The 09 contract basis is around -110 in North China and -50 in East China. Import profits are around -200 with no further increase for now. Non - standard HD injection prices are stable, while LD prices are weakening. Domestic linear production has decreased recently. New device pressure is high in 2025 [7]. - Polypropylene (PP): Upstream and mid - stream inventories are decreasing. The basis is -60, non - standard price spreads are neutral, and import profits are around -700. Exports have been good this year. PDH profits are around -400. Future supply is expected to increase slightly. The 01 contract is under neutral to excessive pressure in the context of overcapacity [7]. - Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC): The basis remains at 01 - 270. Downstream开工 is seasonally weakening, but there is a strong willingness to hold inventory at low prices. Mid - upstream inventories are continuously accumulating. Q4 should focus on production capacity implementation and export sustainability. Current static inventory contradictions are accumulating slowly [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Methanol - Price Data: From October 23 - 29, 2025, prices of动力煤期货 remained at 801. The prices of江苏现货,华南现货,鲁南折盘面, etc. showed some fluctuations. For example,江苏现货 decreased from 2250 on October 23 to 2217 on October 28 [2]. - Viewpoint: The reality is poor, with high imports expected in November. The 01 contract issue is hard to handle, and inventory reduction is difficult. Methanol has limited upside, and the downside depends on the inland market [2]. Polyethylene (PE) - Price Data: From October 23 - 29, 2025, prices of东北亚乙烯,华北LL,华东LL, etc. changed. For example,东北亚乙烯 decreased from 780 on October 23 to 750 on October 28 [7]. - Viewpoint: Overall inventory is neutral. Import profits are around -200. Non - standard HD injection prices are stable, and LD prices are weakening. Domestic linear production has decreased recently. New device pressure is high in 2025 [7]. Polypropylene (PP) - Price Data: From October 23 - 29, 2025, prices of山东丙烯,东北亚丙烯,华东PP, etc. changed. For example,山东丙烯 decreased from 6000 on October 23 to 5950 on October 29 [7]. - Viewpoint: Upstream and mid - stream inventories are decreasing. The basis is -60, non - standard price spreads are neutral, and import profits are around -700. Exports are good. Future supply is expected to increase slightly, and the 01 contract is under neutral to excessive pressure [7]. Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - Price Data: From October 23 - 29, 2025, prices of西北电石,山东烧碱,电石法 - 华东, etc. changed. For example,西北电石 increased from 2450 on October 23 to 2500 on October 24 [7][10]. - Viewpoint: The basis remains at 01 - 270. Downstream开工 is seasonally weakening, but there is a strong willingness to hold inventory at low prices. Mid - upstream inventories are continuously accumulating. Q4 should focus on production capacity implementation and export sustainability [7].