Report Summary 1. Market Performance and Outlook - The price of the main contract of polysilicon showed a relatively strong performance within the range. The closing price of the PS2601 contract was 54,990 yuan/ton, with a gain of 0.72%. The trading volume was 307,284 lots, and the open interest was 118,430 lots, with a net increase of 3,498 lots [4]. - The transaction price range of polysilicon n-type re-feeding materials was 49,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 53,200 yuan/ton, remaining flat compared to the previous period. The transaction price range of n-type granular silicon was 50,000 - 51,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 50,500 yuan/ton, also remaining flat [4]. - In the fourth quarter, the expected polysilicon output is 382,000 tons, with an average monthly output of 127,300 tons. However, the output in October, as statistics from the Silicon Industry Branch show, reached 137,000 tons, exceeding expectations. The significant profit restoration has curbed the willingness for active production cuts. Currently, the monthly output can meet the terminal demand of 68.5GW. The supply - demand imbalance situation has not been reversed, especially as the terminal demand is still in a weak period after the "rush installation." The market focus is expected to remain on the policy side. Recently, there is a policy vacuum period. Although the photovoltaic sector in the equity market is performing strongly, the fundamental situation of polysilicon itself is still weak, and it will run cautiously and strongly within the range [4]. 2. Market News - On October 28, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 9,150 lots, a net decrease of 90 lots compared to the previous trading day [5]. - In September 2025, the newly - installed photovoltaic capacity was 9.66GW, a month - on - month increase of 31.25%. From January to September, the cumulative newly - installed photovoltaic capacity was 240.27GW [5]. - On October 27, Daquan Energy released an announcement stating that its revenue in the third quarter reached 1.773 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 24.75%, and the net profit was 73.479 million yuan. The announcement also showed that the revenue in the first three quarters was 3.243 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 46.00%, and the net profit had a loss of 1.073 billion yuan [5]. - On October 25, Tongwei Co., Ltd. (600438) disclosed its 2025 third - quarter report. In the third quarter, the company's operating income was 24.091 billion yuan, a slight year - on - year decrease of 1.57%. However, the loss of net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies narrowed. The year - on - year loss reduction was 62.69%, and the quarter - on - quarter loss reduction was 86.68%. The recovery of the industry environment has had a positive impact on the company's profitability [5].
建信期货多晶硅日报-20251030
Jian Xin Qi Huo·2025-10-30 01:59