Report Overview - Report Title: Crude Oil and Refined Oil Morning Report - Report Date: October 30, 2025 - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, oil prices rebounded significantly, with Brent crude closing above $65. The US imposed sanctions on major Russian oil producers, and India's Reliance Group will stop importing Russian oil under long - term agreements, which may lead to a near - zero supply of Russian oil to India in the short term. The reduction in Russian crude exports still needs to be evaluated, but Indian purchases have supported the Dubai market in the short term [6]. - Geopolitical concerns were triggered by the US's controversial military strike on Venezuelan transportation. Fundamentally, as of October 17, EIA crude oil inventories decreased by 961,000 barrels, US refinery operations rebounded, and the US Energy Department announced a tender to buy 1 million barrels of crude oil for the strategic reserve. Gasoline and diesel inventories decreased, showing a warming in fundamentals [6]. - Due to concerns about India's diesel exports, the crack spreads of European and American diesel strengthened, but the inventory of Singapore diesel increased by more than 5 million barrels, reaching a 243 - week high, suppressing the global diesel crack spread. In the short term, oil prices may rebound and fluctuate more, and in the medium term, the upside space of oil prices is limited due to Kuwait's statement that OPEC is ready to increase production. The oversupply situation in the fourth quarter continues, and caution is advised when chasing high prices [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oil Price Data - From October 23 to October 29, WTI crude oil prices changed from $61.79 to $60.48, with a change of $0.33; Brent crude oil prices changed from $65.99 to $64.92, with a change of $0.52; Dubai crude oil prices changed from $65.24 to $64.86, with a change of - $0.08 [3]. - SC crude oil prices changed from 459.70 to 462.60, with a change of - 0.10; Oman crude oil prices changed from $68.44 to $64.95, with a change of $0.17 [3]. - Japanese naphtha CFR prices changed from $573.13 to an unspecified value, with a change in the differential to Brent of - $1.32; Singapore fuel oil 380 CST changed from a - $0.73 discount to a - $1.8 discount to Brent, with a change of - $0.65 [3]. 3.2 Daily News - On October 29, the US announced a new round of sanctions against Russia, targeting two major oil companies, Lukoil and Rosneft, and their 34 subsidiaries. This is in line with the sanctions previously announced by the UK and the EU [3]. - The US Treasury issued a license for Rosneft's German subsidiaries. Russia's current crude oil exports are in line with the October plan and have not been affected by the new sanctions, but India's HMEL company has suspended further purchases of Russian crude [4]. 3.3 Regional Fundamentals - The comprehensive profit of local refineries decreased, with profits oscillating downward [6]. 3.4 Weekly Viewpoints - Short - term: Indian purchases will continue to support the Dubai market. Oil prices may rebound and have increased volatility risks [6]. - Medium - term: The reduction in Russian oil supply will be affected by multiple factors and will impact the oil price center in Q4 and Q1 of 2026 (a range of $5 - 10). The upside space of oil prices is limited due to OPEC's potential production increase, and the oversupply situation in the fourth quarter continues [6]. 3.5 EIA Data - For the week ending October 24: US crude oil exports increased by 158,000 barrels per day to 4.361 million barrels per day; domestic crude oil production increased by 15,000 barrels to 13.644 million barrels per day; commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 6.858 million barrels to 416 million barrels, a decrease of 1.62%; strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 533,000 barrels to 409.1 million barrels, an increase of 0.13%; commercial crude oil imports (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 867,000 barrels per day to 5.051 million barrels per day [18]. - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.753 million barrels per day, a decrease of 0.91% compared to the same period last year [18].
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