大越期货豆粕早报-20251030

Report Investment Rating The report does not provide an investment rating for the industry. Core Views - M2601 Soybean Meal: Expected to oscillate between 2940 and 3000. Influenced by US soybean trends, October's high import volume of soybeans, and spot price discounts, it will likely maintain a short - term oscillatory pattern [9]. - A2601 Soybeans: Forecasted to fluctuate between 4060 and 4160. Affected by US soybean trends, high import volumes of soybeans, and expectations of a new domestic soybean harvest, it will also stay in a short - term oscillatory state [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips - Soybean Meal: Forecasted to oscillate between 2940 - 3000. Neutral in terms of fundamentals and price trends; basis shows a discount, which is bearish; inventory reduction is bullish; the main position shows a decrease in short positions and capital outflows, which is bearish [9]. - Soybeans: Expected to fluctuate between 4060 - 4160. Neutral in terms of fundamentals and price trends; basis is neutral; inventory increase is bearish; the main position shows an increase in short positions and capital inflows, which is bearish [11]. 2. Recent News - Sino - US tariff negotiations remain deadlocked, causing short - term bearish sentiment for US soybeans. The US soybean market will oscillate above the thousand - point mark, awaiting further guidance on US soybean production and Sino - US tariff negotiations [13]. - In October, the domestic import volume of soybeans remained high, and the inventory of soybean meal at oil mills declined from its high. The soybean meal market will return to an oscillatory pattern [13]. - Reduced domestic pig - farming profits have led to low expectations for pig restocking, suppressing the price of soybean meal. However, uncertainties in Sino - US trade negotiations have caused the soybean meal market to return to an oscillatory pattern [13]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Soybean Meal Bullish: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory pressure of soybean meal at domestic oil mills, and uncertain weather in US soybean - producing areas [14]. - Soybean Meal Bearish: High total import volume of domestic soybeans in October, US soybean harvest and continuous expectations of a bumper harvest [14]. - Soybean Bullish: Cost of imported soybeans supports the domestic soybean market, and expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports price expectations [15]. - Soybean Bearish: Bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and increased Chinese procurement, and expected increase in new domestic soybean production suppressing price expectations [15]. 4. Fundamental Data - Soybean Meal: The spot price in East China is 2930, with a basis of - 39, showing a discount to futures. The inventory of soybean meal at oil mills is 118.92 million tons, a 4.86% decrease from last week and a 3.04% decrease year - on - year [9]. - Soybeans: The spot price is 4100, with a basis of 13, showing a discount to futures. The inventory of soybeans at oil mills is 719.91 million tons, a 3.63% increase from last week and a 14.38% increase year - on - year [11]. 5. Position Data - Soybean Meal: The main short positions decreased, and capital flowed out [9]. - Soybeans: The main short positions increased, and capital flowed in [11].