大越期货碳酸锂期货早报-20251030

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - side of lithium carbonate is expected to increase in the next month, with the predicted production in October 2025 being 89,890 physical tons, a 3.01% month - on - month increase, and the predicted import volume being 22,000 physical tons, a 12.26% month - on - month increase. The demand - side is expected to strengthen, and inventory may be reduced. The cost of 6% concentrate CIF has a daily increase and is lower than the historical average level. Lithium carbonate 2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 82,000 - 83,800 [8][9]. - The overall situation of lithium carbonate shows a pattern of strong supply and weak demand due to capacity mismatch, and the downward trend is difficult to change [12]. 3. Summaries According to the Catalog 3.1 Daily Views - Supply: Last week, lithium carbonate production was 21,308 tons, a 1.14% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. In September 2025, the production was 87,260 physical tons, and the predicted production for the next month is 89,890 physical tons, a 3.01% increase [8][9]. - Demand: Last week, the inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate was 104,347 tons, a 1.49% week - on - week increase, and the inventory of sample enterprises of ternary materials was 18,592 tons, a 3.50% week - on - week increase [8]. - Cost: The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate is 79,574 yuan/ton, a 0.23% daily increase, with a production loss of 1,542 yuan/ton. The cost of purchased lithium mica is 84,524 yuan/ton, a 1.81% daily increase, with a production loss of 8,509 yuan/ton. The cost of the recycling end is close to that of the ore end, and the production enthusiasm is average. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end is 31,477 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [9]. - Comprehensive Judgment: The fundamentals are neutral; the basis on October 29 shows that the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 79,150 yuan/ton, and the 01 - contract basis is - 3,750 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is bearish. The overall inventory is 130,366 tons, a 1.72% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average, which is neutral. The disk shows that MA20 is upward, and the 01 - contract futures price closes above MA20, which is bullish. The net position of the main force is short, and the short position decreases, which is bearish [9]. 3.2 Lithium Carbonate Market Overview - Price and Basis: The futures prices of various contracts of lithium carbonate have increased to varying degrees. The basis of various contracts shows that the spot is at a discount to the futures, and the discount has increased to varying degrees [11][14]. - Upstream Prices: The price of lithium spodumene (6%) has increased by 0.32%, and the price of lithium mica concentrate (2% - 2.5%) has increased by 3.15%. The prices of other upstream products have also changed to varying degrees [14]. - Positive and Negative Materials Prices: The prices of positive and negative materials such as ternary precursors, ternary materials, and lithium iron phosphate have increased to varying degrees [14]. 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - Production and Import: The monthly production of lithium ore has increased to varying degrees, and the monthly import volume of lithium concentrate has also increased. The import volume from Australia has increased significantly, while the import volume from Chile has decreased [17]. - Supply - Demand Balance: The supply - demand balance of domestic lithium ore has fluctuated, with shortages in some months and surpluses in others [26]. 3.4 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - Production and Import: The monthly production of lithium carbonate has increased to varying degrees, and the monthly import volume has also changed. The production volume from different sources such as lithium spodumene, lithium mica, and salt lakes has different trends [28]. - Supply - Demand Balance: The supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate has fluctuated, with shortages in some months and surpluses in others [34]. 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - Production and Export: The monthly production and export volume of lithium hydroxide have changed. The production volume from different sources such as smelting and causticizing has different trends [37]. - Supply - Demand Balance: The supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide has fluctuated, with shortages in some months and surpluses in others [39]. 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost - Profit - Cost and Profit of Different Sources: The cost and profit of lithium compounds from different sources such as purchased lithium spodumene concentrate, purchased lithium mica concentrate, and recycling materials have different trends. The import profit of lithium carbonate and the profit of lithium hydroxide in different production methods also show different changes [42][44][47]. 3.7 Inventory - Lithium Carbonate Inventory: The overall inventory of lithium carbonate is 130,366 tons, a 1.72% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average. The inventory of smelters, downstream, and others has different trends [9]. - Lithium Hydroxide Inventory: The monthly inventory of lithium hydroxide from different sources such as downstream and smelters has different trends [49]. 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - Battery Price and Production: The prices of different types of batteries such as 523 - square batteries and power - square lithium iron phosphate batteries have different trends. The monthly production of battery cells, the monthly loading volume of power batteries, and the export volume of lithium batteries have also changed [52]. 3.9 Demand - Ternary Precursor - Price, Production, and Supply - Demand Balance: The prices of different types of ternary precursors have changed. The monthly production and the supply - demand balance of ternary precursors have also fluctuated, with shortages in some months and surpluses in others [58][61]. 3.10 Demand - Ternary Material - Price, Production, and Inventory: The prices of different types of ternary materials have changed. The monthly production and the weekly inventory of ternary materials have also changed [64][67]. 3.11 Demand - Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium - Price, Cost - Profit, and Production: The prices of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium have changed. The cost - profit of iron phosphate lithium and the monthly production of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium have also changed [70][73]. 3.12 Demand - New Energy Vehicle - Production, Sales, and Penetration Rate: The production, sales, and sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles have changed. The zero - batch ratio of hybrid and pure - electric vehicles of the Passenger Car Association and the inventory warning index and inventory index of dealers have also changed [78][79][82].