大越期货沥青期货早报-20251030

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side shows that the planned domestic asphalt production in August 2025 was 2.413 million tons, a 5.1% decrease from the previous month and a 17.1% increase year-on-year. The sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt this week was 33.0777%, a decrease of 4.31 percentage points from the previous week. The overall demand is below the historical average level, and the cost support is expected to weaken in the short term. It is predicted that the asphalt 2601 will fluctuate in the range of 3252 - 3296 [8]. - The main logic is that the supply pressure remains high, and the demand recovery is weak. There are both positive and negative factors. The positive factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support, while the negative factors include insufficient demand for high - priced goods and the strengthening expectation of economic recession in Europe and the United States [10][11][12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Fundamentals: In terms of supply, refineries reduced production this week to ease supply pressure, but supply pressure may increase next week. In terms of demand, the current demand is below the historical average. In terms of cost, the daily processing profit of asphalt increased by 30.70% compared with the previous period, the loss of asphalt processing increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreased. The short - term support is expected to weaken [8]. - Basis: On October 29, the spot price in Shandong was 3280 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was 6 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures, showing a neutral situation [8]. - Inventory: Social inventory and factory inventory continued to be destocked, while port inventory continued to accumulate, showing a neutral situation [8]. - Disk: The MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below the MA20, showing a bearish situation [8]. - Main Position: The main position is net long, and the long position increased, showing a bullish situation [8]. - Expectation: It is expected that the disk will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, and the asphalt 2601 will fluctuate in the range of 3252 - 3296 [8]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend: The report presents the basis trends of asphalt in Shandong and East China, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [17]. - Spread Analysis - Main Contract Spread: The report shows the spread trends of asphalt 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [20]. - Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend: The report shows the price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas crude oil, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [23]. - Crude Oil Crack Spread: The report shows the crack spreads of asphalt with SC, WTI, and Brent crude oils, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [26]. - Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend: The report shows the price ratio trend of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [30]. 3.3 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions: The report shows the price trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [33]. 3.4 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit Analysis - Asphalt Profit: The report shows the profit trend of asphalt, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [36]. - Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend: The report shows the trend of the profit spread between coking and asphalt, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [39]. - Supply Side - Shipment Volume: The report shows the weekly shipment volume of asphalt, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [42]. - Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory: The report shows the domestic diluted asphalt port inventory, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [44]. - Production Volume: The report shows the weekly and monthly production volumes of asphalt, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [47]. - Marey Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend: The report shows the price of Marey crude oil and the monthly production of Venezuelan crude oil, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [51]. - Refinery Asphalt Production: The report shows the asphalt production of refineries, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [54]. - 开工率: The report shows the weekly utilization rate of asphalt production capacity, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [57]. - Maintenance Loss Estimation: The report shows the estimated maintenance loss volume, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [59]. - Inventory - Exchange Warehouse Receipts: The report shows the situation of exchange warehouse receipts, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [62]. - Social Inventory and Factory Inventory: The report shows the trends of social inventory and factory inventory, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [66]. - Factory Inventory - to - Stock Ratio: The report shows the factory inventory - to - stock ratio, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [69]. - Import and Export Situation - Export and Import Trends: The report shows the export and import trends of asphalt, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [72]. - Korean Asphalt Import Spread Trend: The report shows the import spread trend of Korean asphalt, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [77]. - Demand Side - Petroleum Coke Production: The report shows the production of petroleum coke, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [78]. - Apparent Consumption: The report shows the apparent consumption of asphalt, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [81]. - Downstream Demand - Highway Construction and Related Indicators: The report shows the trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [84]. - Downstream Machinery Demand: The report shows the sales trends of asphalt concrete pavers, domestic excavators, and road rollers, as well as the monthly working hours of excavators, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [88]. - Asphalt Utilization Rate - Heavy - Traffic Asphalt Utilization Rate: The report shows the utilization rate of heavy - traffic asphalt, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [93]. - Asphalt Utilization Rate by Purpose: The report shows the utilization rates of construction asphalt and modified asphalt, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [96]. - Downstream Utilization Situation: The report shows the utilization rates of shoe - material SBS modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane modified asphalt, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [98]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: The report presents the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to October 2025, including downstream demand, port inventory, factory inventory, social inventory, export volume, import volume, and production volume [103].