Group 1: Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Group 2: Core Views Oils and Fats - Palm oil: Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are under pressure, with concerns about production growth and export slowdown. There is a risk of further decline in prices, maintaining a view of near - term weakness and long - term strength. In China, Dalian palm oil futures are oscillating, and attention should be paid to whether they can stabilize at the annual line of 8800 yuan. [1] - Soybean oil: Optimistic expectations of a Sino - US trade agreement may support soybean prices and drive up soybean oil prices from the cost side. In China, there is pressure on soybean meal supply in Guangxi, leading to an increase in the basis price of soybean oil. However, overall demand is weak, and the basis price is expected to remain stable. [1] Livestock (Pigs) - The enthusiasm for secondary fattening has slowed down, and the market supply is relatively loose. In the short term, there may still be support from secondary fattening, and the price decline is limited. In the medium term, the number of pigs for slaughter will continue to increase in November and December, and there may be a new round of pressure around the Winter Solstice. It is advisable to wait for the spot price to stabilize before considering reverse arbitrage. [3] Meal Products - The improvement in Sino - US trade relations strongly supports US soybeans, but after the price rebounds above 1100 cents, there is profit - taking. Brazilian soybean exports remain high, and the discount provides support for domestic soybean import costs. Although domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at a high level, cost - side support is strengthening, and the domestic soybean meal trend is expected to be strong. [6] Corn and Corn Starch - In the Northeast, corn prices are generally stable due to factors such as temperature and policy support. In the North China region, farmers' selling enthusiasm changes with price fluctuations, and prices have partially rebounded. Overall, there is still selling pressure due to a bumper harvest, and prices are limited in their rebound. On the demand side, procurement is mainly for rigid needs. The corn futures market is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation in the short term. [8] Sugar - Brazil's gasoline price cut fails to lower the sugar - making ratio, and the sugar supply outlook is loose, causing the raw sugar price to remain weak. With the arrival of the Northern Hemisphere's sugar - pressing season, the market is focusing on production prospects in India and Thailand. The domestic sugar price has limited downward momentum as it approaches the production cost, and it is expected to continue the bottom - oscillating pattern. [13] Cotton - The downstream textile enterprises' profits and cash flow have improved, and there is a rigid demand for cotton. The rising cost of new cotton provides strong support, but there is also hedging pressure when the price rises. With the approaching end of seed cotton procurement, the marginal driving force is decreasing. Therefore, the cotton price is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term. [14] Eggs - The supply of eggs is sufficient due to a high inventory of laying hens, improved egg - laying rates, and increased egg weights. The demand may first increase and then decrease this week as traders replenish and then digest their inventories. Egg prices may rise slightly first and then decline slightly in the second half of the week. Attention should be paid to the resistance level of 3200 for the main contract. [16] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - Soybean Oil: On October 29, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8350 yuan, down 100 yuan (-1.18%) from the previous day; the futures price of Y2601 was 8132 yuan, down 50 yuan (-0.61%); the basis was 218 yuan, down 50 yuan (-18.66%); the number of warehouse receipts increased by 500 to 27644, a 1.84% increase. [1] - Palm Oil: On October 29, the spot price in Guangdong was 8750 yuan, down 150 yuan (-1.69%); the futures price of P2601 was 8842 yuan, down 116 yuan (-1.29%); the basis was - 92 yuan, down 34 yuan (-58.62%); the import cost was 9273.7 yuan, down 163 yuan (-1.73%); the import profit was - 432 yuan, up 47 yuan (9.83%); the number of warehouse receipts decreased to 0 from 512. [1] - Price Spreads: The soybean oil inter - period spread (01 - 05) was 172 yuan, down 8 yuan (-4.44%); the palm oil inter - period spread (01 - 05) was - 48 yuan, down 26 yuan (-118.18%); the rapeseed oil inter - period spread (01 - 05) was 340 yuan, down 38 yuan (-9.82%); the soybean - palm oil spot price spread was - 400 yuan, up 50 yuan (11.11%); the soybean - palm oil 2601 price spread was - 930 yuan, up 48 yuan (4.91%); the rapeseed - soybean oil spot price spread was 1450 yuan, down 100 yuan (-6.45%); the rapeseed - soybean oil 2601 price spread was 1393 yuan, down 155 yuan (-10.01%). [1] Livestock (Pigs) - Futures Market: The basis of the main contract was 365 yuan, up 75 yuan (25.86%); the price of LH2605 was 12010 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan (-0.41%); the price of LH2601 was 12185 yuan, up 25 yuan (0.21%); the 1 - 5 spread was 175 yuan, up 75 yuan (75.00%); the position of the main contract was 119788, up 2540 (2.17%); the number of warehouse receipts was 206, unchanged. [3] - Spot Market: Spot prices in various regions increased, with increases ranging from 100 to 800 yuan/ton. The daily slaughter volume of sample points decreased by 1215 to 162661 (-0.74%); the weekly white - striped pork price was 18.47 yuan, down 0.03 yuan (-0.16%); the weekly piglet price was 26 yuan/kg, unchanged; the weekly sow price was 32.47 yuan, unchanged; the weekly average slaughter weight was 127.9 kg, down 0.3 kg (-0.27%); the weekly self - breeding profit was - 186 yuan/head, up 59 yuan (24.12%); the weekly purchased - pig breeding profit was - 289 yuan/head, up 86.2 yuan (22.97%); the monthly inventory of reproductive sows was 40380000 heads, down 40000 (-0.10%). [3] Meal Products - Soybean Meal: In Jiangsu, the spot price was 2970 yuan, unchanged; the futures price of M2601 was 2969 yuan, down 6 yuan (-0.20%); the basis was 1 yuan, up 6 yuan (120.00%); the basis price was m2601 - 30, unchanged; the import crushing profit for Argentine December shipments was - 49 yuan, unchanged; the import crushing profit for Brazilian December shipments was - 240 yuan, down 33 yuan (-15.9%); the number of warehouse receipts was 42332, down 50 (-0.1%). [6] - Rapeseed Meal: In Jiangsu, the spot price was 2450 yuan, up 10 yuan (0.41%); the futures price of RM2601 was 2373 yuan, down 23 yuan (-0.96%); the basis was 77 yuan, up 33 yuan (75.00%); the import crushing profit for Canadian January shipments was 583 yuan, down 148 yuan (-20.25%); the number of warehouse receipts was 3915, down 135 (-3.33%). [6] - Soybeans: The spot price of Harbin soybeans was 3900 yuan, unchanged; the futures price of the main soybean contract was 4113 yuan, down 2 yuan (-0.05%); the basis was - 213 yuan, up 2 yuan (0.93%); the spot price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu was 3940 yuan, unchanged; the futures price of the main soybean - 2 contract was 3671 yuan, down 12 yuan (-0.33%); the basis was 269 yuan, up 12 yuan (4.67%); the number of warehouse receipts was 7190, up 100 (1.41%). [6] - Price Spreads: The soybean meal inter - period spread (01 - 05) was 166 yuan, down 14 yuan (-7.78%); the rapeseed meal inter - period spread (01 - 05) was 43 yuan, down 15 yuan (-25.86%); the oil - meal ratio in the spot market was 2.81, down 0.034 (-1.18%); the oil - meal ratio of the main contract was 2.74, down 0.011 (-0.41%); the spot soybean - rapeseed meal price spread was 520 yuan, down 10 yuan (-1.89%); the 2601 soybean - rapeseed meal price spread was 596 yuan, up 17 yuan (2.94%). [6] Corn and Corn Starch - Corn: The price of C2601 at Jinzhou Port was 2116 yuan, down 7 yuan (-0.33%); the basis was 17 yuan, down 13 yuan (-76.47%); the 1 - 5 spread was - 105 yuan, up 2 yuan (1.87%); the price of bulk grain at Shekou was 2280 yuan, up 20 yuan (0.88%); the north - south trade profit was 40 yuan, up 11 yuan (137.93%); the CIF price was 1974 yuan, down 4 yuan (-0.19%); the import profit was 306 yuan, up 24 yuan (8.38%); the number of remaining vehicles at Shandong deep - processing enterprises in the morning was 552, down 192 (-25.81%); the position was 1774664, up 10545 (0.60%); the number of warehouse receipts was 63966, up 2000 (3.23%). [8] - Corn Starch: The price of CS2601 was 2427 yuan, up 3 yuan (0.12%); the spot price in Changchun was 2510 yuan, unchanged; the spot price in Weifang was 2750 yuan, unchanged; the basis was 83 yuan, down 3 yuan (-3.49%); the 1 - 5 spread was - 113 yuan, up 4 yuan (3.42%); the 01 contract spread between starch and corn was 311 yuan, up 10 yuan (3.32%); the profit of Shandong starch was 120 yuan, down 8 yuan (-6.25%); the trading volume was 280362, down 3102 (-1.09%); the number of warehouse receipts was 12504, unchanged. [8] Sugar - Futures Market: The price of SR2601 was 5494 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan (0.20%); the price of SR2605 was 5430 yuan, up 12 yuan (0.22%); the price of ICE raw sugar was 14.43 cents/pound, up 0.04 cents (0.28%); the 1 - 5 spread was 64 yuan, down 1 yuan (-1.54%); the position of the main contract was 391035, down 9001 (-2.25%); the number of warehouse receipts was 7625, down 70 (-0.91%); the number of valid forecasts was 586, unchanged. [13] - Spot Market: The spot price in Nanning and Kunming was unchanged. The Nanning basis was 320 yuan, down 12 yuan (-3.61%); the Kunming basis was 290 yuan, down 12 yuan (-3.97%); the price of imported Brazilian sugar within the quota was 3990 yuan, down 25 yuan (-0.62%); the price of imported Brazilian sugar outside the quota was 5052 yuan, down 33 yuan (-0.65%); the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar within the quota and Nanning was - 1760 yuan, down 25 yuan (-1.44%); the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar outside the quota and Nanning was - 698 yuan, down 33 yuan (-4.96%). [13] - Industry Situation: The cumulative national sugar production was 1116.21 million tons, up 119.89 million tons (12.03%); the cumulative national sugar sales were 1048 million tons, up 88 million tons (9.17%); the cumulative sugar production in Guangxi was 646.5 million tons, up 28.36 million tons (4.59%); the monthly sugar sales in Guangxi were 26.66 million tons, down 18.68 million tons (-41.20%); the cumulative national sugar sales rate was 93.9%, down 2.51 percentage points (-2.60%); the cumulative sugar sales rate in Guangxi was 93.9%, up 4.3 percentage points (4.80%); the national industrial sugar inventory was 68.21 million tons, down 47.79 million tons (-41.20%); the industrial sugar inventory in Guangxi was 44.21 million tons, up 17.07 million tons (62.90%); the industrial sugar inventory in Yunnan was 33.65 million tons, up 7.07 million tons (26.60%); sugar imports were 55 million tons, up 15 million tons (37.50%). [13] Cotton - Futures Market: The price of CF2605 was 13625 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan (0.41%); the price of CF2601 was 13620 yuan, up 55 yuan (0.41%); the price of ICE US cotton was 65.95 cents/pound, up 0.9 cents (1.38%); the 5 - 1 spread was 5 yuan, unchanged; the position of the main contract was 578488, down 596 (-0.10%); the number of warehouse receipts was 2460, down 11 (-0.45%); the number of valid forecasts was 1076, up 194 (22.00%). [14] - Spot Market: The arrival price of Xinjiang cotton was 14650 yuan, down 1 yuan (-0.01%); the CC Index 3128B was 14840 yuan, up 10 yuan (0.07%); the FC Index M 1% was 13209 yuan, up 93 yuan (0.71%); the spread between 3128B and the 01 contract was 1025 yuan, down 56 yuan (-5.18%); the spread between 3128B and the 05 contract was 1030 yuan, down 56 yuan (-5.16%); the spread between CC Index 3128B and FC Index M 1% was 1631 yuan, down 83 yuan (-4.84%). [14] - Industry Situation: Commercial inventory was 172.02 million tons, up 69.85 million tons (68.4%); industrial inventory was 80.93 million tons, down 3.62 million tons (-4.3%); imports were 10 million tons, up 3 million tons (42.9%); bonded area inventory was 28.8 million tons, down 0.1 million tons (-0.3%); the year - on - year inventory of the textile industry was 0.3, down 0.1 (-25.0%); the yarn inventory days were 25.24 days, up 0.39 days (1.6%); the grey fabric inventory days were 31.43 days, up 0.31 days (1.0%); the cotton outbound shipping volume was
《农产品》日报-20251030
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-10-30 02:21