Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Glass and Soda Ash - The overall sentiment of the commodity market has strengthened, and the disk has rebounded recently. However, fundamentally, the weekly production is at a high level, and there is an obvious surplus compared to the current rigid demand. The inventory of manufacturers has been transferred to the middle and lower reaches, and the trade inventory has continued to rise. In the medium term, there is no expectation of a significant increase in downstream production capacity, so the overall demand for soda ash will continue the previous rigid demand pattern. If there is no actual production capacity exit or load reduction in the future, the supply and demand will be further pressured. It is recommended to track macro fluctuations and the load adjustment of soda ash plants. The overall supply and demand pattern is still bearish, but the previous phased negative factors have basically been exhausted. It is recommended to close out the previous short positions, wait and see in the short term, and wait for the opportunity to short on the rebound [1]. - Recently, the production and sales have significantly warmed up, and the disk has stabilized and rebounded. After multiple price cuts, the middle and lower reaches have begun to replenish their inventories one after another, and the spot-futures traders have been actively purchasing. Due to the weakening of the basis, some spot-futures traders have no quotes. It is necessary to pay attention to the continuous performance of the spot market. Returning to the industry's supply and demand, although the deep-processing orders have improved seasonally, they are still weak, and the low-e glass开工率 has continued to be low, showing no obvious characteristics of the peak season. In the long term, the real estate cycle is at the bottom, and the completion volume is shrinking. Eventually, the industry needs to clear the excess production capacity. It has been suggested to close out the previous short positions and pay attention to the spot market to capture short-term long opportunities [1]. Logs - The price of log futures contract 2601 is at a relatively low level. The obvious inversion of domestic and foreign prices has formed a certain support for the import cost, limiting the downward space of the disk. However, there is an expectation of weakening fundamentals in the future. On the one hand, the import volume to the port will increase seasonally in the fourth quarter, and the supply pressure will gradually emerge. On the other hand, the effect of the national subsidy policy has faded, and the furniture demand has weakened, resulting in insufficient support from the terminal demand and an increased risk of inventory accumulation at the port. Under the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market's pessimistic expectation dominates. Overall, the log futures disk is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of the follow-up progress of the China-US economic and trade consultations on the import cost expectation and the changes in the spot price [3]. Natural Rubber - On the supply side, there has been a lot of rain in the producing areas until the end of the month, and the raw material prices have continued to rise. In the short term, the cost side strongly supports the rubber price. In the long term, there is still an expectation of increased supply. It is necessary to pay attention to the future weather conditions. On the demand side, most semi-steel tire enterprises have maintained stable production schedules. Currently, there are concentrated orders for snow tires with various specifications and models. To ensure the normal supply of each product, the production enthusiasm of semi-steel tire enterprises remains high. For all-steel tires, the enterprises' shipment performance has been stable, and the inventory of some enterprises has increased. There are plans to boost sales at the end of the month, and most enterprises are likely to maintain stable production schedules, with a slight fluctuation in the overall capacity utilization rate. In summary, the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance on the prospect of a December interest rate cut may put short-term pressure on the rubber price. It is necessary to pay attention to the raw material output in the peak production season of the main producing areas and the macro changes. If the raw material supply is smooth, there is further downward space for the rubber price. If the raw material supply is not smooth, the rubber price is expected to fluctuate between 15,000 and 15,500 [5]. Polysilicon - The spot price of polysilicon has slightly decreased by 630 yuan/ton, a decline of about 1.2%. The futures price has risen driven by positive news such as the expected establishment of a platform company, but then declined with a reduction in positions. This may be because the arbitrage window opened after the price increase, leading some long positions to close out. The futures price closed at 54,990 yuan/ton, up 635 yuan/ton. It was reported that on October 28, 2025, Mr. Zhu Gongshan of GCL Group revealed in the CCTV program "Economic Half - Hour" that 17 major industry enterprises basically agreed to sign an agreement to form a consortium, which is beneficial for price increases. On the supply side, as the production capacity in the southwest region is gradually shut down, the output in November is expected to drop to about 120,000 tons. On the demand side, the silicon wafer production schedule has increased, and the supply pressure has decreased, but the downstream procurement has decreased, resulting in an increase in inventory. It should be noted that the silicon wafer price has slightly decreased, and the sustainability of the polysilicon price increase needs to be monitored. Currently, polysilicon is mainly oscillating at a high level. On the one hand, it is necessary to pay attention to the establishment of the platform company and the production control situation. On the other hand, it is necessary to pay attention to whether there is an increase in orders on the demand side to support the increase in supply. After the significant increase in the futures price, the futures price is at a premium to the spot average price. For further significant increases, it is necessary to pay attention to the hedging space of upstream enterprises. It is also necessary to pay attention to whether there will be further implementation measures or policies [7]. Industrial Silicon - The spot price of industrial silicon has stabilized, and the futures price has risen driven by the news of anti - involution, closing at 9,170 yuan/ton, up 215 yuan/ton. From the perspective of supply and demand, the weekly supply - side output has increased, while the demand - side output has decreased, which may lead to inventory accumulation and put pressure on the price. When the spot price is under pressure, it is necessary to note that the opening of the arbitrage window in East China may bring hedging opportunities. The coking coal price has risen under positive news such as supply contraction, and its impact on the industrial silicon futures price needs to be noted. Currently, it is still maintained that the increase in industrial silicon supply puts pressure on the price, but there is also cost support at the bottom. It is expected to mainly oscillate at a low level, with the main price fluctuation range between 8,500 and 9,500 [8]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash - Prices and Spreads: The prices of glass and soda ash in North China, East China, and Central China remained unchanged. The prices of glass contracts 2505 and 2509 increased by 1.27% and 1.04% respectively, and the prices of soda ash contracts 2505 and 2509 increased by 1.20%. The 05 basis of glass decreased by 12.03%, and the 05 basis of soda ash decreased by 51.61% [1]. - Supply: The soda ash开工率 increased from 85.53% to 88.41%, and the weekly output increased from 74.57 million tons to 77.08 million tons. The float glass daily melting volume increased from 15.95 million tons to 16.13 million tons, and the photovoltaic daily melting volume remained unchanged [1]. - Inventory: The glass factory inventory increased from 59.355 million weight boxes to 62.824 million weight boxes, a rise of 5.84%. The soda ash factory inventory increased from 159.99 million tons to 165.98 million tons, a rise of 3.74%. The soda ash delivery warehouse inventory increased from 67.19 million tons to 69.91 million tons, a rise of 4.05% [1]. - Real Estate Data: The new construction area increased by 0.09%, the construction area decreased by 2.43%, the completion area decreased by 0.03%, and the sales area decreased by 6.50% [1]. Logs - Prices and Spreads: The prices of log contracts 2601, 2603, and 2605 increased slightly. The prices of various log specifications in ports such as Rizhao and Taicang remained unchanged. The import theoretical cost remained unchanged, and the exchange rate remained unchanged [3]. - Supply and Demand: The port shipping volume from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea increased by 6.00%, and the number of ships at the port increased by 4.55%. The total inventory of national coniferous logs decreased by 2.74%, and the daily inventory withdrawal volume increased [3]. Natural Rubber - Prices and Spreads: The price of Yunnan state - owned standard rubber remained unchanged, the basis of whole - milk rubber decreased by 43.44%, and the non - standard price difference decreased by 31.94%. The FOB intermediate price of cup rubber increased by 1.43%, and the FOB intermediate price of glue remained unchanged [5]. - Fundamentals: The production of Thailand, Indonesia, and India in August changed, and the production of China increased. The开工率 of semi - steel and all - steel tires increased. The domestic tire production in August increased, and the tire export volume in September decreased [5]. - Inventory: The protected area inventory decreased by 1.20%, the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber increased by 6.28%, and the出库率 and入库率 of dry rubber in Qingdao changed [5]. Polysilicon - Prices and Spreads: The average price of N - type polysilicon decreased by 1.19%, and the N - type material basis decreased by 92.00%. The prices of N - type silicon wafers and some battery components remained unchanged, and the prices of some components increased slightly [7]. - Fundamentals: The weekly and monthly production of silicon wafers increased, and the monthly production of polysilicon decreased. The import and export volume of polysilicon and silicon wafers changed [7]. - Inventory: The polysilicon inventory increased by 1.98%, and the silicon wafer inventory increased by 6.70% [7]. Industrial Silicon - Prices and Spreads: The prices of various types of industrial silicon remained unchanged, and the basis of different types of industrial silicon decreased. The monthly spreads of different contracts changed [8]. - Fundamentals: The national and regional production of industrial silicon changed, the开工率 of different regions changed, and the production of organic silicon DMC, polysilicon, and recycled aluminum alloy changed. The industrial silicon export volume decreased [8]. - Inventory: The inventory in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan changed, and the social inventory and warehouse receipt inventory decreased slightly [8].
《特殊商品》日报-20251030
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-10-30 02:15