贵金属日评-20251030

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Fed's potential rate cuts, geopolitical risks, and the accelerating restructuring of the international trade and monetary system continue to provide safe - haven demand and liquidity premium for precious metals. However, in the short term, precious metals need to consolidate to digest the previous sharp rise. Investors are advised to maintain a bullish trading approach and observe the support level of London gold at $3,800 - $3,850 per ounce [4]. - The upward trend of precious metals since late August may continue until 2026. The six - month and one - year target prices for London gold are $4,500 and $4,800 per ounce respectively, and for London silver are $58 and $63 per ounce respectively. Investors are advised to hold a long - position trading strategy, and short - hedgers can appropriately reduce the hedging ratio. But currently, the price - to - earnings ratio of gold is too high, and long - position investors need to control their positions and be aware of short - term adjustment risks [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals Market Trends and Outlook - Intraday Trend: Optimistic expectations for a trade agreement from the China - US summit and a strong global stock market weakened the safe - haven demand for precious metals. Overnight, London gold dropped to $3,886 per ounce, with a maximum adjustment of 11.3% since October 20th. Subsequently, expectations of a Fed rate cut drove bargain - hunting funds into the market, and London gold rebounded to around $4,000 per ounce during the Asian session on the 29th [4]. - Domestic Market: The Shanghai Gold Index closed at 913.02, up 1.07%; the Shanghai Silver Index closed at 11,354, up 2.60%; Gold T + D closed at 910.50, up 1.54%; Silver T + D closed at 11,321, up 2.96% [5]. - Mid - term Trend: The US employment and inflation situation supports the Fed to restart the rate - cut process, and under the dual influence of Trump's pressure and management changes, the rate - cut amplitude may be larger. The election of Kōmeitō's candidate as the Japanese Prime Minister raises concerns about the return of Abenomics and the re - flooding of yen liquidity. The accelerating restructuring of the global trade and monetary system and high geopolitical risks continue to generate allocation and safe - haven demand for gold. The support levels for London gold are $4,130 and $3,975 per ounce, and for London silver are $50.31 and $47.76 per ounce [5]. 3.2 Main Macroeconomic Events/Data - US consumer confidence dropped to a six - month low of 94.6 in October due to concerns about short - term job opportunities, providing more reasons for the Fed to cut rates on Wednesday. The government shutdown was a major concern [17]. - NVIDIA CEO Huang Renxun announced that the company will build seven new supercomputers for the US Department of Energy and has received $500 billion in AI chip orders. NVIDIA has been excluded from the Chinese market and did not apply for US export licenses for the latest chips. It also announced a cooperation with Nokia to enter the AI communication market [17]. - US President Trump criticized Fed Chairman Powell and mentioned many candidates to replace him. US Treasury Secretary Bessent said that the final candidates for the Fed Chairman include five people [17]. - The US FCC voted 3 - 0 to strengthen regulations on telecommunications equipment produced by Chinese companies considered a national security risk, banning new equipment containing parts from restricted - list companies from getting authorization and giving the FCC the power to ban the sale of authorized equipment in specific cases [18].