大越期货PVC期货早报-20251030

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply pressure decreased this week, with a 2.05% MoM decrease in PVC production in September 2025 and a 0.00 percentage point MoM decrease in the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate. Next week, maintenance is expected to decrease, and production scheduling is expected to increase slightly [6]. - Downstream overall开工率 increased by 0.27 percentage points to 49.86%, higher than the historical average. However, the current demand may continue to be sluggish, with shipping costs expected to rise and domestic PVC export prices being competitive [6]. - Both the calcium carbide method and ethylene method are in a loss - making state, with the loss increasing by 1.30% MoM. The double - ton spread profit increased by 0.80% MoM, but all are lower than the historical average, and production scheduling may be under pressure [6][7]. - The overall supply pressure is strong, and domestic demand recovery is not smooth. The PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4747 - 4803. There are both positive and negative factors in the market, with positive factors including supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits, while negative factors include the rebound of overall supply pressure, high inventory, slow consumption, and weak domestic and foreign demand [8][11][12]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Views - Supply Side: In September 2025, PVC production was 2.030766 million tons, a 2.05% MoM decrease. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 76.57%, with a 0.00 percentage point MoM decrease. Calcium carbide method enterprise production was 316,280 tons, a 0.45% MoM decrease, and ethylene method enterprise production was 150,360 tons, a 0.47% MoM increase. Next week, maintenance is expected to decrease, and production scheduling is expected to increase slightly [6]. - Demand Side: The downstream overall开工率 was 49.86%, a 0.27 percentage point MoM increase, higher than the historical average. However, the current demand may continue to be sluggish, with shipping costs expected to rise and domestic PVC export prices being competitive [6]. - Cost Side: The calcium carbide method profit was - 722.72 yuan/ton, with a 1.30% MoM increase in loss, lower than the historical average. The ethylene method profit was - 560.46 yuan/ton, also with a 1.30% MoM increase in loss, lower than the historical average. The double - ton spread was 2,323.25 yuan/ton, with a 0.80% MoM increase in profit, lower than the historical average [6][7]. - Overall Judgment: The fundamentals are neutral, the basis is bearish, the inventory is neutral, the disk is neutral, and the main position is bearish [6][9]. - Positive and Negative Factors: Positive factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. Negative factors include the rebound of overall supply pressure, high inventory, slow consumption, and weak domestic and foreign demand [11]. 2. PVC Market Overview - Provides yesterday's market overview data, including various price indicators, month - to - month spreads, inventory data, downstream开工率, and profit data [14][15]. 3. PVC Futures Market - Basis Trend: Displays the historical basis trend of PVC, along with the PVC East China market price and the main contract closing price [17][18]. - Volume and Price Analysis: Shows the volume, price, and position changes of the PVC futures main contract, including the opening price, highest price, lowest price, closing price, and the position changes of the top 5/20 seats [20][21]. - Spread Analysis: Presents the historical spread trends of the main contracts, such as the 1 - 9 spread and 5 - 9 spread [23][24]. 4. PVC Fundamentals - Calcium Carbide Method - Related: Analyzes the price, cost, profit,开工率, and inventory of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, and caustic soda in the calcium carbide method [26][27][29][30][31][32][33][34][35][36][37]. - PVC Supply Trend: Analyzes the capacity utilization rate, profit, production volume, and maintenance volume of the calcium carbide method and ethylene method in PVC production [38][39][40][42]. - Demand Trend: Analyzes the sales volume, pre - sales volume, production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, and downstream开工率 of PVC, as well as the profit, cost, production volume, and apparent consumption of paste resin. Also, it analyzes relevant data in the real estate and infrastructure fields [44][45][46][48][50][52][54]. - Inventory: Analyzes the inventory data of the exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide method factory warehouses, ethylene method factory warehouses, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days [55][56]. - Ethylene Method: Analyzes the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, and relevant price spreads in the ethylene method [57][58]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: Presents the monthly supply - demand balance data of PVC, including production, import, export, demand, social inventory, and factory inventory [60][61].