贵金属早报-20251030

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Despite the Fed's 25 - basis - point rate cut and the end of QT, Powell's hawkish stance on the December rate - cut outlook led to a significant drop in the December rate - cut expectation. Gold prices rebounded and then declined, while silver prices followed gold in giving up gains, but silver was stronger than gold under an optimistic trade scenario. Today, the progress of China - US trade negotiations should be monitored, and both gold and silver prices face pressure, though the pressure on silver is more limited [4][6]. - With Trump's inauguration, the world has entered a period of extreme turmoil and change. Inflation expectations have shifted to economic recession expectations. Gold and silver prices are difficult to fall, and gold is still prone to rising and hard to decline [10][13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - Gold: After the Fed's 25 - basis - point rate cut and the end of QT, Powell's hawkish remarks on the December rate - cut outlook caused gold prices to rebound and then fall. US and European stock indices closed mixed. US Treasury yields rose collectively, with the 10 - year Treasury yield up 9.82 basis points to 4.074%. The US dollar index rose 0.43% to 99.16, and the offshore RMB depreciated slightly against the US dollar to 7.0968. COMEX gold futures fell 1.04% to $3941.7 per ounce [4]. - Silver: Silver prices followed gold in rebounding and then falling due to Powell's hawkish comments. The December rate - cut expectation dropped significantly. Under an optimistic trade situation, silver was stronger than gold. COMEX silver futures fell 0.1% to $47.275 per ounce [6]. 3.2. Daily Hints - Gold: The gold futures price was 910.88, the spot price was 908.1, and the basis was - 2.78, indicating that the spot was at a discount to the futures, which was bearish. Gold futures warehouse receipts increased by 801 kilograms to 87816 kilograms, also bearish. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was below the 20 - day moving average, showing a neutral signal. The main net position was long, but the main long positions decreased, which was bullish [5]. - Silver: The silver futures price was 11338, the spot price was 11311, and the basis was - 27, indicating a neutral situation. The Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts decreased by 3599 kilograms to 653828 kilograms, which was bullish. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was above the 20 - day moving average, showing a neutral signal. The main net position was long, and the main long positions increased, which was bullish [6]. 3.3. Today's Focus - Time - pending events include a state leader's visit to South Korea for the 32nd APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting and a state visit to South Korea, the closing of the 2025 Financial Street Forum Annual Conference, and the Moore Threads' first MUSA Developer Conference. Other key events include the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision and economic outlook report, a press conference by the Bank of Japan's governor, the preliminary GDP data for the third quarter in France, Germany, and the Eurozone, the German unemployment figures and unemployment rate for October, the preliminary CPI data for Germany in October, the European Central Bank's interest - rate decision, a press conference by the ECB's president, and a speech by a Fed official [15]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - Gold: Bullish factors include the global turmoil and the shift from inflation expectations to economic recession expectations after Trump's inauguration, and the ongoing verification process between the expected and actual policies of the US new government, which keeps gold prices high and makes them prone to rising. Bearish factors are not clearly stated in the context. The risk points include Trump's new policies, an improved outlook for the US economy, a significant interest - rate hike by the Bank of Japan, the end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and black - swan events [10][11]. - Silver: Bullish factors are similar to those of gold, with the additional support from concerns about non - ferrous metal tariffs. Bearish factors include the end of rate cuts, an improved economic outlook, insufficient fiscal expansion in Europe, a resurgence of risk aversion, and the end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict. The risk points are the same as those for gold [13][14]. 3.5. Position Data - Gold: On October 29, 2025, the long positions of the top 20 in Shanghai gold increased by 222 to 170,205, a 0.13% increase; the short positions decreased by 1223 to 64,463, a 1.86% decrease; and the net long position increased by 1445 to 105,742, a 1.39% increase [29]. - Silver: On October 29, 2025, the long positions of the top 20 in Shanghai silver increased by 38 to 322,427, a 0.01% increase; the short positions decreased by 4394 to 246,819, a 1.75% decrease; and the net long position increased by 4432 to 75,608, a 6.23% increase [31].