国债期货早报-20251030

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The sentiment in the inter - bank bond market in China is relatively high. Short - and medium - term bond yields have declined significantly due to rumors of large banks buying new bonds issued this year within three years, while long - term bonds have performed weakly. The central bank has been supportive, and the inter - bank market liquidity has loosened. There is still room for market speculation on loose monetary policy, providing short - term support for the bond market [2]. 3. Section Summaries 3.1. Market Review - Fundamentals: The inter - bank bond market sentiment is high, short - and medium - term bonds are in high demand with falling yields, long - term bonds are weak, most Treasury bond futures contracts have risen, and the central bank has increased market liquidity. The market is still speculating on loose monetary policy, which supports the short - term bond market [2]. - Funding: On October 29, the central bank conducted 557.7 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at an interest rate of 1.40%, with 138.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, resulting in a net investment of 419.5 billion yuan [2]. - Basis: The basis of TS, TF, and T main contracts is negative, indicating that the spot is at a discount to the futures, which is bearish. The basis of the TL main contract is positive, indicating that the spot is at a premium to the futures, which is bullish [2]. - Inventory: The balance of deliverable bonds for the TS, TF, and T main contracts is 1.3594 trillion yuan, 1.4935 trillion yuan, and 2.3599 trillion yuan respectively, which is neutral [3]. - Market Trend: The TS, TF, and T main contracts are above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, which is bullish [3]. - Main Positions: The net long positions of the TS and TF main contracts have increased, while the net long positions of the T main contract have decreased [4]. - Expectations: The central bank has increased the volume of MLF renewals for eight consecutive months. In September, the manufacturing PMI recovered but remained below the boom - bust line, the CPI increased by 0.1% month - on - month and decreased by 0.3% year - on - year, and the core CPI has been rising year - on - year [5]. - Contract Quotes: The T2512.CFE contract price is 108.570, up 0.13%, with a trading volume of 91,358 and an open interest of 246,279, an increase of 7,086. The TF2512.CFE contract price is 106.070, up 0.16%, with a trading volume of 99,318 and an open interest of 149,109, an increase of 10,861. The TS2512.CFE contract price is 102.576, up 0.10%, with a trading volume of 56,118 and an open interest of 71,222, an increase of 2,282. The TL2512.CFE contract price is 115.83, down 0.27%, with a trading volume of 125,436 and an open interest of 146,041, a decrease of 1,892 [8]. 3.2. Spot Bond Analysis The report presents the DR interest rate and the maturity yields of inter - bank Treasury bonds for 2 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year terms, as well as the term spreads between 10Y - 2Y and 5Y - 2Y, but does not provide specific analysis conclusions [9][13]. 3.3. Basis Analysis The report shows the basis trends of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures contracts, but no specific analysis conclusions are provided [16][17][19].