Report Overview - The report is a polyolefin morning report dated October 30, 2025, focusing on LLDPE and PP [2] LLDPE Analysis Fundamental Factors - In September, the official PMI was 49.8, up 0.4 points from the previous month, indicating improved manufacturing sentiment but still in the contraction range. The medium - long - term "supply increase and demand decrease" pattern of crude oil remains unchanged, providing limited support to the polyolefin cost side. From October 25 - 26, China and the US held economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur and reached a preliminary consensus. The US and Europe imposed a new round of sanctions on Russian oil, leading to a rebound in oil prices. In the supply - demand aspect, the peak - season demand for agricultural films continues with stable production, while the rest of the film categories have completed restocking and production has declined. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7020 (-20), with an overall neutral fundamental situation [4] Other Factors - The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is 11, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.2%, which is neutral. The PE comprehensive inventory is 466,000 tons (-114,000), also neutral. The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish trend. The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, with a reduction in short positions, also bearish [4] Expectation - The LLDPE main contract shows a volatile rebound. Considering the preliminary consensus from China - US negotiations, new sanctions on Russian oil and the resulting crude oil rebound, the continued peak - season demand for agricultural films, and the neutral industrial inventory, it is expected that PE will show a volatile and slightly bullish trend today [4] LLDPE Pros and Cons - Likely to be Bullish: New sanctions on Russian oil lead to a rebound in oil prices; China - US talks reach a preliminary consensus [5] - Likely to be Bearish: Demand is weaker year - on - year; There are many new production launches in the fourth quarter [5] - Main Logic: Cost and demand, driven by domestic macro - policies [5] PP Analysis Fundamental Factors - Similar to LLDPE, in September, the official PMI was 49.8, up 0.4 points from the previous month, with the manufacturing sentiment improved but still in the contraction range. The long - term "supply increase and demand decrease" pattern of crude oil persists, offering limited cost - side support. China - US economic and trade consultations reached a preliminary consensus, and new sanctions on Russian oil led to a rebound in oil prices. In terms of supply - demand, the peak season for plastic weaving supports demand, and the demand for pipes has recovered. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6630 (+0), with an overall neutral fundamental situation [6] Other Factors - The basis of the PP 2601 contract is - 55, with a premium - discount ratio of - 0.8%, showing a bearish trend. The PP comprehensive inventory is 595,000 tons (-84,000), which is neutral. The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, indicating a bearish trend. The net position of the PP main contract is short, with a reduction in short positions, also bearish [6] Expectation - The PP main contract shows a volatile rebound. With the preliminary consensus from China - US negotiations, new sanctions on Russian oil and the crude oil rebound, the downstream peak - season demand support, and the neutral industrial inventory, it is expected that PP will show a volatile and slightly bullish trend today [6] PP Pros and Cons - Likely to be Bullish: New sanctions on Russian oil lead to a rebound in oil prices; China - US talks reach a preliminary consensus [7] - Likely to be Bearish: Demand is weaker year - on - year; There are many new production launches in the fourth quarter [7] - Main Logic: Cost and demand, driven by domestic macro - policies [7] Market Data Spot and Futures Prices - LLDPE: The spot price of delivery products is 7020 (-20), the 01 - contract price is 7009 (+24), the import price in US dollars is 818 (0), the import - converted price is 7139 (-1), and the import price difference is - 119 (-19) [8] - PP: The spot price of delivery products is 6630 (0), the 01 - contract price is 6685 (+28), the import price in US dollars is 795 (0), the import - converted price is 6942 (-1), and the import price difference is - 312 (+1) [8] Inventory - LLDPE: The PE comprehensive inventory is 466,000 tons (-114,000), including a warehouse receipt of 12,745 (0), a factory inventory of 466,000 tons (-99,000), and a social inventory of 527,000 tons (-18,000) [8] - PP: The PP comprehensive inventory is 595,000 tons (-84,000), including a warehouse receipt of 14,569 (-4), a factory inventory of 595,000 tons (-43,000), and a social inventory of 320,000 tons (-10,000) [8] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets Polyethylene - From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, net import volume, apparent consumption, etc. of polyethylene have shown certain trends. For example, the production capacity increased from 1869.5 in 2018 to 3584.5 in 2024, with a growth rate of 12.4% in 2024 compared to the previous year. The import dependence decreased from 46.3% in 2018 to 32.9% in 2024 [13] Polypropylene - From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, net import volume, apparent consumption, etc. of polypropylene also changed. The production capacity increased from 2245.5 in 2018 to 4418.5 in 2024, with a growth rate of 13.5% in 2024 compared to the previous year. The import dependence decreased from 18.6% in 2018 to 9.5% in 2024 [15]
大越期货聚烯烃早报-20251030
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-10-30 02:37