Report Information - Report Title: Urea Morning Report [2] - Date: October 30, 2025 [2] - Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The current daily production and operating rate of urea have started to decline from high levels, and the comprehensive inventory has slightly decreased. The agricultural demand has rebounded due to weather influence, while the industrial demand is significantly weak. The export volume has increased with a large but decreasing price difference between domestic and international markets. Although the domestic urea market remains oversupplied, the market is expected to recover in the short term. The spot price of the delivery product is 1580 (-10), and the overall fundamentals are neutral. The UR2601 contract basis is -64, with a premium/discount ratio of -4.1%, indicating a bearish signal. The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.84 million tons (-201,000), also bearish. The 20-day moving average of the UR main contract is downward, but the closing price is above the 20-day line, showing a neutral signal. The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish. The main contract of urea is expected to rebound, with weak industrial demand, rising agricultural demand, strong international urea prices, and increasing export volume. Despite the obvious domestic oversupply, the price is expected to rise in the short term, and the UR is expected to show a volatile and upward trend today [4]. Summary by Directory Urea Overview Fundamentals - The current daily production and operating rate are declining from high levels, and the comprehensive inventory is slightly decreasing. Agricultural demand has rebounded due to weather, while industrial demand is significantly weak. The export volume has increased with a large but decreasing price difference between domestic and international markets. The domestic urea market remains oversupplied, but the market is expected to recover in the short term. The spot price of the delivery product is 1580 (-10), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. Basis - The UR2601 contract basis is -64, with a premium/discount ratio of -4.1%, indicating a bearish signal [4]. Inventory - The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.84 million tons (-201,000), showing a bearish signal [4]. Disk - The 20-day moving average of the UR main contract is downward, but the closing price is above the 20-day line, showing a neutral signal [4]. Main Position - The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [4]. Expectation - The main contract of urea is expected to rebound, with weak industrial demand, rising agricultural demand, strong international urea prices, and increasing export volume. Despite the obvious domestic oversupply, the price is expected to rise in the short term, and the UR is expected to show a volatile and upward trend today [4]. Factors Affecting Urea Bullish Factors - Strong international prices, increasing exports, and short-term decline in daily production [5]. Bearish Factors - Domestic oversupply [5]. Main Logic - International prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5]. Spot and Futures Market - The spot price of the delivery product is 1580 (-10), the price of Shandong spot is 1600 (-10), and the price of Henan spot is 1580 (0). The price of the FOB China is 2662. The price of the UR01 contract is 1644 (9), the price of the UR05 contract is 1717 (9), and the price of the UR09 contract is 1747 (11). The basis of the UR01 contract is -64 (-19). The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.84 million tons, the UR manufacturer inventory is 1.63 million tons, and the UR port inventory is 210,000 tons [6]. Supply and Demand Balance Sheet - Urea | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Import Volume | Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | - | 22.455 billion | - | 19.5681 billion | 4.4838 billion | 18.6% | 24.0519 billion | 236.6 million | 24.0519 billion | - | | 2019 | - | 24.455 billion | 8.9% | 22.4 billion | 4.8794 billion | 17.9% | 27.2794 billion | 378.6 million | 27.1374 billion | 12.8% | | 2020 | - | 28.255 billion | 15.5% | 25.8098 billion | 6.1912 billion | 19.3% | 32.001 billion | 378.3 million | 32.0013 billion | 17.9% | | 2021 | - | 31.485 billion | 11.4% | 29.2799 billion | 3.5241 billion | 10.7% | 32.804 billion | 357.2 million | 32.8251 billion | 2.6% | | 2022 | - | 34.135 billion | 8.4% | 29.6546 billion | 3.3537 billion | 10.2% | 33.0083 billion | 446.2 million | 32.9193 billion | 0.3% | | 2023 | - | 38.935 billion | 14.1% | 31.9359 billion | 2.9313 billion | 8.4% | 34.8672 billion | 446.5 million | 34.8669 billion | 5.9% | | 2024 | - | 44.185 billion | 13.5% | 34.25 billion | 3.6 billion | 9.5% | 37.85 billion | 514 million | 37.7825 billion | 8.4% | | 2025E | - | 49.06 billion | 11.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | [9]
大越期货尿素早报-20251030
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-10-30 02:43