大越期货玻璃早报-20251030

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The glass market has a weak fundamental situation. Supply is at a low level and has recently seen more disturbances, but the terminal demand recovery is weak. It is expected that the glass will mainly show a weak and volatile trend in the short - term [2][6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily View - Fundamental analysis: Supply is at a low level and starting to recover, with many supply - side disturbances in the Shahe area such as "coal - to - gas" conversion. Downstream deep - processing orders are generally weak, worse than the same period in previous years, and the real - estate terminal demand is weak, which is bearish [2]. - Basis: The spot price of float glass in Hebei Shahe is 1044 yuan/ton, the closing price of FG2601 is 1127 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 83 yuan, with the futures at a premium to the spot, which is bearish [2]. - Inventory: The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 66.613 million weight boxes, an increase of 3.64% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average, which is bearish [2][44]. - Disk: The price is running below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward, which is bearish [2]. - Main position: The main position is net short, and the short position is increasing, which is bearish [2]. - Expectation: The glass fundamentals are weak, and it is expected to mainly show a weak and volatile trend in the short - term [2]. 3.2 Influencing Factors Summary - Bullish factors: Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, there is an expectation of capacity clearance in the float glass industry. Some production lines in the Shahe area are undergoing "coal - to - gas" conversion, increasing supply - side disturbances [4]. - Bearish factors: The real - estate terminal demand is still weak, and the number of orders of glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low for the same period. The capital collection in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly digesting the original glass inventory [5]. 3.3 Main Logic The glass supply has declined to a relatively low level in the same period. Recently, there have been more supply - side disturbances, but the terminal demand recovery is weak. It is expected that the glass will mainly show a volatile trend [6]. 3.4 Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract increased from 1113 yuan/ton to 1127 yuan/ton, a rise of 1.26%. The spot price of Shahe Safety large - plate remained unchanged at 1044 yuan/ton. The main basis increased from - 69 yuan/ton to - 83 yuan/ton, a rise of 20.29% [7]. 3.5 Glass Spot Market The market price of 5mm white glass large - plate in the spot benchmark area of Hebei Shahe is 1044 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [12]. 3.6 Fundamental - Cost Side The report mentions glass production profit but does not provide specific data [14][17]. 3.7 Fundamental - Production - The number of national float glass production lines in operation is 226, with an operating rate of 76.35%. The number of operating production lines is at a historical low for the same period [23]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass is 161,300 tons, with the production capacity at the lowest level in the same period in history and starting to recover [25]. 3.8 Fundamental - Demand - In August 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.8602 million tons [29]. - The report also mentions housing sales, new construction, construction, and completion areas, as well as the operating and order situations of downstream processing plants, but no specific data is provided [30][32][39]. 3.9 Fundamental - Inventory The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 66.613 million weight boxes, an increase of 3.64% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [44]. 3.10 Fundamental - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of float glass from 2017 to 2024E, including data such as production, apparent supply, consumption, production growth rate, consumption growth rate, and net import ratio [45].