Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The provided content does not mention any industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Report - Financial Derivatives: The market is influenced by various factors such as Sino - US relations, central bank policies, and economic data. For example, Sino - US leaders' meetings affect market sentiment, and central bank monetary policies impact interest rates and asset prices [2][4]. - Precious Metals: After the Fed's interest rate decision and statements, precious metals are under short - term pressure, but there are long - term bullish factors [7][9]. - Shipping Index (European Line): The container shipping market shows a mixed situation with increasing capacity and different demand indicators in different regions. The futures market is expected to be volatile [12][13]. - Non - ferrous Metals: Different non - ferrous metals have different supply - demand situations and price trends. For example, copper has long - term supply - demand contradictions supporting price increases, while aluminum is in a tight - balance situation [13][18][23]. - Black Metals: The steel and iron ore markets are affected by supply, demand, and inventory factors. The coal and coke markets are also influenced by production, consumption, and policy factors [44][47][50]. - Agricultural Products: Different agricultural products have different market trends. For example, soybean meal has cost support, while the pig price is in a volatile state [56][59]. 3. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - Stock Index Futures: On Wednesday, the main indexes opened higher and rose with increased trading volume. The four major stock index futures contracts also rose, and the basis spread of the main contracts was repaired. The Sino - US leaders' meeting and relevant policies affected market sentiment. It is recommended to try to sell put options at the support level or construct a bullish call spread [2][3][4]. - Treasury Bond Futures: Most treasury bond futures closed higher, and the yield of most major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market declined. The short - end bonds were supported by the expectation of the central bank's bond - buying restart, while the long - term bonds were suppressed. It is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to the positive arbitrage strategy [5][6]. Precious Metals - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 BP as expected and announced the end of the balance - sheet reduction. The precious metals market was affected by the Fed's statements and economic data. Gold prices fell after rising, and silver prices rose slightly. In the short term, precious metals are under pressure, but there are long - term bullish factors [7][9]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - As of October 30, the freight quotes for Shanghai - Europe routes varied among different shipping companies. The container shipping index showed an upward trend. The global container capacity increased, and the demand indicators in different regions were different. The futures market is expected to be volatile, and it is recommended to go long on dips for the December contract [12][13]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - The spot price of copper decreased slightly, and the trading was light. The Fed cut interest rates, and the market focused on the Sino - US leaders' meeting. The supply of copper ore was tight, and the production of refined copper was expected to decline in October. The demand for copper had strong resilience. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at 87000 [13][14][18]. Alumina - The spot price of alumina was stable with a slight decline in some regions. The supply was abundant, and the demand was weak. The inventory increased. The price is expected to be under pressure in the short term, and the main contract is expected to oscillate between 2750 - 2950 [18][19][20]. Aluminum - The spot price of aluminum increased slightly. The supply was affected by the proportion of molten aluminum, and the demand was structurally different. The inventory increased slightly. The price is expected to be in a high - level oscillation, and the main contract is expected to operate between 20800 - 21400 [21][22][23]. Aluminum Alloy - The spot price of aluminum alloy was stable. The supply was affected by raw materials and policies, and the demand was in a mild recovery. The inventory decreased. The price is expected to be in a strong - side oscillation, and the main contract is expected to operate between 20200 - 20800 [23][24][25]. Zinc - The spot price of zinc increased slightly. The supply was expected to be limited in the future due to the decline in processing fees and by - product prices. The demand was stable, and the inventory decreased. The price is expected to be in an oscillation, and the main contract is expected to operate between 21800 - 22800 [26][27][28]. Tin - The spot price of tin increased slightly. The supply of tin ore was tight, and the demand was weak. The inventory situation was mixed. Due to the hawkish remarks on the December interest - rate cut, the short - term price may decline. It is recommended to buy on dips [29][30][33]. Nickel - The spot price of nickel decreased slightly. The production of refined nickel was high, and the demand in different sectors was different. The inventory increased. The price is expected to be in an interval oscillation, and the main contract is expected to operate between 118000 - 126000 [33][34][35]. Stainless Steel - The spot price of stainless steel was stable. The raw material cost support was weakening, the supply was expected to increase, and the demand was not significantly boosted. The inventory decreased slowly. The price is expected to be in a weak - side oscillation, and the main contract is expected to operate between 12500 - 13000 [37][38][39]. Lithium Carbonate - The spot price of lithium carbonate increased. The supply was increasing, and the demand was optimistic. The inventory was decreasing. The price is expected to be strong in the short term, and attention should be paid to the resistance levels at 83,000 and 85,000 [40][41][43]. Black Metals Steel - The spot price of steel increased, and the basis spread weakened. The cost and profit situation was complex, the supply was affected by production reduction and increase, and the demand was affected by domestic and foreign factors. The inventory decreased. It is recommended to hold long positions and pay attention to the previous high pressure [44][45][46]. Iron Ore - The spot and futures prices of iron ore increased. The supply situation was mixed with increasing global shipments and decreasing arrivals at ports. The demand was affected by steel production and profit. The inventory increased. It is recommended to go long on dips for the 2601 contract and conduct 1 - 5 positive arbitrage [47][48][49]. Coking Coal - The futures price of coking coal rose strongly. The spot price was strong, and the downstream had replenishment demand. The supply was affected by domestic production reduction and import situations. The demand was affected by iron and steel production. The inventory increased slightly. It is recommended to go long on dips for the 2601 contract, with a reference interval of 1200 - 1350, and conduct long - coking coal and short - coke arbitrage [50][52][55]. Coke - The futures price of coke rose strongly. The spot price had a third - round price increase. The supply was affected by coking coal prices and production reduction. The demand was affected by steel production. The inventory decreased slightly. It is recommended to go long on dips for the 2601 contract, with a reference interval of 1700 - 1850, and conduct long - coking coal and short - coke arbitrage [53][54][55]. Agricultural Products Meal Products - The spot price of soybean meal was mixed, and the trading volume decreased. The supply and demand situation was affected by Sino - US relations, Brazilian soybean exports, and domestic inventory. The cost of domestic soybean imports was supported, and the trend of domestic soybean meal was expected to be strong [56][57][58]. Live Pigs - The spot price of live pigs was stable with a slight increase. The profit of pig farming improved, and the average weight of pigs decreased. The second - round fattening enthusiasm slowed down, and the price was expected to be volatile. It is recommended to wait and see for the reverse spread arbitrage [59][60]. Corn - The spot price of corn was mixed. The inventory situation in ports showed different trends for different grains. The supply pressure was still there, and the price was expected to be in a weak - side oscillation [61].
广发早知道：汇总版-20251030
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-10-30 03:33