Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The release of the 15th Five - Year Plan proposal and the upcoming Sino - US leaders' meeting in South Korea have stimulated the market, with risk appetite significantly increasing. Different sectors in the market show various trends and investment opportunities, influenced by factors such as macro - economic expectations, policy changes, and supply - demand relationships [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Sector - Stock Index: The meeting between China and the US and macro - expectations have stimulated the index to recover. It is recommended to try to sell put options at the support level with a light position or construct a bull call spread to capture the upward potential [3]. - Treasury Bonds: Short - term wide - money expectations, Sino - US relations, and profit - taking needs may affect the bond market, leading to possible fluctuations. However, with the recovery of bond market sentiment and the support of the restart expectation of treasury bond trading, there may be trading opportunities for band - up movements. It is advisable to go long on dips and pay attention to the positive arbitrage strategy [3]. - Precious Metals: Market risk appetite has continued to rise, causing funds to flow out rapidly. After a significant decline, gold and silver prices rebounded. It is recommended to buy gold at a low price below $4000 after the Fed's decision, and pay attention to the trend of silver at around $47 [3]. - Container Shipping Index: The EC main contract shows short - term fluctuations, and it is recommended to go long on dips for the December contract [3]. Black Sector - Steel: Steel inventory reduction supports the strengthening of steel prices. It is recommended to pay attention to the previous high pressure for long positions and hold the arbitrage of going long on coking coal and short on hot - rolled coils [3]. - Iron Ore: With the decline in shipments and arrivals, and the increase in port inventory and a slight decrease in hot - metal output, iron ore continues to rebound. It is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to the 1 - 5 spread arbitrage [3]. - Coking Coal: The price of origin coal is running strongly, and the downstream replenishment demand has recovered. It is recommended to go long on coking coal 2601 on dips and pay attention to the arbitrage of going long on coking coal and short on coke [3]. - Coke: Mainstream coke enterprises have initiated the third round of price increases, with coking coal providing cost support. It is recommended to go long on coke 2601 on dips and pay attention to the arbitrage of going long on coking coal and short on coke [3]. Non - ferrous Sector - Copper: The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP as expected. It is recommended to pay attention to the support around 87,000 for the main contract [3]. - Aluminum and Related Products: Different aluminum - related products show various trends, and corresponding price ranges and trading strategies are provided, such as focusing on the operating range and support levels [3]. - Tin: Powell's hawkish remarks on the December interest - rate cut outlook may cause tin prices to fall in the short term. A strategy of buying on dips during the correction is recommended [3]. - Nickel and Stainless Steel: The improvement of macro - sentiment has led to the strengthening of the nickel and stainless - steel markets. Corresponding price ranges for the main contracts are provided [3]. Energy and Chemical Sector - Crude Oil: The easing of macro - sentiment and the unexpected reduction of EIA inventory have driven the crude - oil price to recover, but the production - increase pressure from OPEC still limits the rebound height. It is recommended to go short on rallies [3]. - Urea: The downstream demand support is still weak, and it is recommended to wait and see. The short - term resistance level is given at 1650 - 1670 yuan/ton [3]. - PX, PTA, and Related Products: The cost center has risen, but the rebound space is limited under weak expectations. Corresponding trading strategies such as paying attention to pressure levels and reducing positions on rallies are provided [3]. - Short - fiber, Bottle - chip, and Other Products: Different products have different supply - demand and cost - profit situations, and corresponding trading strategies are recommended, such as going short on rallies to narrow spreads [3]. - Ethanol and Other Chemicals: For different chemicals, various trading strategies are provided according to their supply - demand relationships and price trends, such as selling out - of - the - money call options on rallies and conducting spread arbitrage [3]. Agricultural Sector - Grains and Oilseeds: Different grains and oilseeds show different trends, and corresponding trading strategies such as going long on certain contracts and paying attention to support levels are provided [3]. - Livestock and Poultry: The entry of second - fattening pigs has slowed down, and the pig price is oscillating. It is recommended to pay attention to the support around 12,000 [3]. - Sugar, Cotton, and Other Products: Different agricultural products have different price trends and trading opportunities, such as paying attention to support and pressure levels and conducting spread arbitrage [3]. Special and New Energy Sectors - Special Commodities: Glass, rubber, and industrial silicon show different trends, and corresponding trading strategies such as short - term long - position opportunities and paying attention to price ranges are provided [3]. - New Energy Commodities: The prices of polysilicon and lithium carbonate are affected by factors such as the expected establishment of platform companies and fundamental improvements, showing high - level oscillations and a rising price center [3].
广发期货日评-20251030
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-10-30 05:06